Cop28’s winners and losers: from fossil fuel firms to future generations

Winners

The oil and gas industry

The need to “transition away from fossil fuels” may finally have been recognised after three decades of climate talks, but there is no clear obligation or hard timetable to achieve this, and numerous loopholes in the form of “transition fuels” and allusions to carbon capture technologies and carbon credits.

The US and China

The world’s two biggest emitters will be breathing a sigh of relief after leaving Cop with few extra burdens to change despite growing global alarm about climate disruption. The US pledged only $20m (£15.7m) in new finance for poor countries and remains the biggest oil producer. China can continue building coal-power plants.

Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber

Despite fierce criticism, he got a compromise deal over the line that was widely praised by other nations as the best that could be achieved. It will also not lose him his day job as chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ biggest oil company, Adnoc, which is planning to expand output in defiance of scientific advice that this will push the world’s climate into more dangerous heating beyond 1.5C (2.7F) above preindustrial levels.

Clean energy companies

Solar, wind and other clean energy companies look to be in for a bonanza after 118 governments at Cop28 pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030. This is intended to cut the share of fossil fuels in the world’s energy production, but until now renewables have added to oil, coal and gas, rather than replace them.

Lobbyists

Industry representatives were present in record numbers in Dubai – 2,456 delegates from the oil and gas sector, 475 from the carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry, more than 100 from agribusiness and many more from elsewhere. Many will leave Dubai happy. The final text made no mention of the role of beef companies in the climate crisis, supported CCS, and a debate on regulating the carbon trading market was scuppered for now.

Losers

The climate

The Paris agreement’s most ambitious goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C was left nominally alive by Cop28, but in effect has been killed off by the lack of urgency and specifics in the agreement. Despite the hottest summer in 120,000 years, the oil, gas, coal and farming companies that are heating the planet can continue to expand production for the foreseeable future.

Small island states

The Alliance of Small Island States, which represents those most vulnerable to sea level rise, said the agreement contained “a litany of loopholes” and represented only incremental change, which was not sufficient to keep heating below 1.5C.

Climate justice

Despite progress at Cop28 in setting up a “loss and damage fund”, developing nations, which are most affected by the climate crisis but least to blame, say richer, industrialised countries are not paying enough to help them adapt and transition away from fossil fuels.

Future generations and other species

The biggest victims of the climate crisis remain under-represented in decision-making processes. Despite the record heat of 2023, this is still likely to be one of the coolest years in the lives of many young people. The goal of zero global deforestation by 2030 was welcomed by conservation groups, but many ecosystems will continue to be eroded by rising temperatures.

Scientists

Climate experts welcomed the mention of fossil fuels but said the deal did not reflect the urgency and clarity reflected in the science. “The lukewarm agreement reached at Cop28 will cost every country, no matter how rich, no matter how poor. Everyone loses,” said Friederike Otto at Imperial College London, co-founder of the World Weather Attribution group. “With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die.”