Air freight greenhouse gas emissions up 25% since 2019, analysis finds

Air freight operators have increased their greenhouse gas emissions by 25% compared with 2019, analysis has found.

In 2023, air freight operators ran about 300,000 more flights than in 2019, an increase in flight volume of almost 30%. The US accounted for more than 40% of global air freight emissions, according to the report by campaign group Stand.earth.

Dr Devyani Singh, one of the authors of the analysis, described the expansion as “a new climate and human health threat” and urged air freight companies to “end their reliance on air cargo and shift freight shipments to lower-carbon modes of transport such as marine shipping or rail”.

Air freight produces an estimated 80 times more carbon than shipping by sea or truck, making it one of the most carbon-intensive transportation methods.

The researchers attribute the sharp increase to shifts in the post-pandemic economy and newfound consumer expectations in e-commerce, where rapid shipping has become the standard; Amazon’s Prime membership programme is used by more than 200 million people globally.

The researchers said that before the Covid-19 pandemic, air freight was reserved mostly for perishable goods, time-sensitive deliveries and luxury items. However, disruptions in the pandemic-era supply chain led to an unprecedented rise in the number of non-perishable and lower-value goods transported by air freight.

The report highlights a twofold reason for increased emissions. Before the pandemic, cargo was often transported in the belly of passenger planes. The dip in consumer demand for international air travel during the pandemic led to an expansion of cargo-only fleets to transport wares. This has not subsequently fallen, even as belly cargo emissions have returned post-pandemic.

By 2023, air freight emissions had increased by 25% from 2019, making up 93.8m tonnes overall. Meanwhile, belly cargo emissions have bounced back to almost 90% of 2019 levels.

FedEx and UPS were responsible for 24.7% of the industry’s carbon emissions in 2023. It is estimated that 99.8% of aviation fuel is produced from fossil fuels, with the scaling of low carbon replacements a distant prospect.

Research published last year forecast that global annual parcel volume could increase to 800bn parcels a year by 2030, compared with 315bn in 2022.

Meanwhile, the sector is experiencing robust growth, with Amazon having had a 13% increase in revenues from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.