April Mediterranean heatwave ‘almost impossible’ without climate crisis
The record-shattering temperatures that hit the western Mediterranean last week would have been “almost impossible” without the climate crisis, according to scientists.
The heatwave across Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria was made at least 100 times more likely by global heating, the researchers calculated. Before the climate crisis, such an extreme event would have been expected only once in a least 40,000 years, making it statistically impossible on human timescales.
The scientists said such heat early in the year was especially harmful to people, who were less prepared than in summer. Farmers were already suffering under a prolonged drought and the heatwave struck at an important time in the crop-growing season, particularly for wheat.
Extreme temperatures in the region are increasing faster than predicted by climate models – a problem that worries scientists – and intensive research is in progress to understand the reasons.
Human-caused global heating was already known to be increasing the severity and frequency of heatwaves. But the number of extreme events that would have been essentially impossible without the climate crisis is rising, destroying lives and livelihoods across the planet.
In April, scientists showed that the devastating drought in the Horn of Africa would not have happened without global heating. A Guardian analysis in 2022 found that at least a dozen serious events, from killer heatwaves to broiling seas, would have been all but impossible without human-caused global heating.
“The heatwave was a rare event in current climates, but an event of this extremity would have been almost impossible in the past colder climates, and we will see more intense and more frequent heatwaves in the future,” said Dr Sjoukje Philip at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, one of the researchers who conducted the study as part of the World Weather Attribution collaboration.
“The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in Europe,” said Dr Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, who was one of the study team. “These heatwaves are definitely not going away, so these kinds of conditions will occur ever more frequently until we stop emitting greenhouse gases.”
Extreme temperatures in the region are increasing faster than predicted by climate models – a problem that worries scientists – and intensive research is in progress to understand the reasons.
Human-caused global heating was already known to be increasing the severity and frequency of heatwaves. But the number of extreme events that would have been essentially impossible without the climate crisis is rising, destroying lives and livelihoods across the planet.
In April, scientists showed that the devastating drought in the Horn of Africa would not have happened without global heating. A Guardian analysis in 2022 found that at least a dozen serious events, from killer heatwaves to broiling seas, would have been all but impossible without human-caused global heating.
“The heatwave was a rare event in current climates, but an event of this extremity would have been almost impossible in the past colder climates, and we will see more intense and more frequent heatwaves in the future,” said Dr Sjoukje Philip at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, one of the researchers who conducted the study as part of the World Weather Attribution collaboration.
“The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in Europe,” said Dr Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, who was one of the study team. “These heatwaves are definitely not going away, so these kinds of conditions will occur ever more frequently until we stop emitting greenhouse gases.”
cover photo: Flamingos walk through a muddy pond in the Fuente de Piedra lagoon, dry due to the lack of rainfall. Photograph: Carlos Gil/Getty Images
