Why hypothetical hydrogen puts Africa on the backburner
216GW of green hydrogen projects are proposed in 11 countries in Africa, but it’s unclear if the projects are technically or financially feasible.
An analysis of Global Energy Monitor data suggests that proposed green hydrogen projects planned for Africa will not be economically viable, even if they do get built.
The recently published analysis suggests that 61% of proposed utility-scale wind and solar projects in Africa are not intended for domestic consumption but rather export to Europe in the form of green hydrogen. This despite Europe not yet establishing a market for green hydrogen.
216GW of green hydrogen projects are proposed in 11 countries in Africa, but it’s unclear if the projects are technically or financially feasible.
The feasibility of these projects face strong headwinds because of
- unrealistic timelines,
- a lack of financing, and
- no offtakers,
suggesting the green hydrogen projects will not be economically viable, even if they do reach commissioning stage.
Green hydrogen projects still mostly speculative at this point
Speaking to ESI Africa, Global Energy Monitor (GEM) researcher Julie Macuga explained that green hydrogen is scarcely being used outside of the heavy industry sector, and certainly not yet for energy production.
“We would need to see offtake agreements, the start of construction for projects, financial closures and vast changes to Europe’s energy infrastructure so that it could safely handle hydrogen in place of fuels like gas. Or we’d need to see a shift towards on-site industry development rather than export,” explained Macuga.
The GEM data shows that more than 60% of solar and wind capacity in development in Africa is for hydrogen production.
Data in their Global Wind Power Tracker and Global Solar Power Tracker count roughly 350GW of prospective utility-scale wind and solar capacity across Africa. These are projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases.
These announced projects are roughly 10 times what is currently in operation across the continent.
By comparison, the entire world installed 380GW of solar in the first half of 2025.
What does it matter, technologies always take a while to mature?
The reason this matters is because these projects, sometimes hundreds of times larger than the host country’s current wind and solar capacity, pull investment and resources from international decarbonisation efforts, such as the goal of tripling of renewables by 2030 that was agreed at COP28.
They also pull resources from projects on the other end of the spectrum that can have immediate positive impacts, with projects as small as 50kW (0.00005GW) holding the potential to increase local household incomes by two-thirds.
Macuga said European companies and governments backing green hydrogen projects in Africa need to be transparent about the gamble they are taking.
“Where hydrogen projects are proposed, people should have the autonomy to decide what types of energy and exports are best suited for them.
“Small, distributed wind and solar projects have proven effective in addressing energy access in Africa, with millions benefitting from these projects. Hydrogen remains largely hypothetical,” said Macuga.
Are there green hydrogen projects that ARE going to work?
Macuga pointed out that a green hydrogen project in Africa that seems closest to fruition is the Daures Green Hydrogen Village in Namibia, “but it still has a long way to go and just lost $10 billion in funding in September.”
She pointed out that the fledgling green hydrogen industry relies on several really big assumptions, that
- demand will appear,
- international politics and currencies will be stable, and
- this unproven technology will actually perform at a scale we’ve never seen it built at.
But this doesn’t mean the projects must be dismissed just yet.
“With the backing of multinational companies and some European governments, we’ve already seen industries like gas reshape the energy landscape in recent years.
“Even if everything falls into place, there’s no guarantee that consumers will make the shift to this new fuel. A feasibility study certainly helps move a project forward, but without a market to sell to, these projects seem like a huge gamble,” said Macuga. ESI
Cover photo: scharfsinn86©123rf
