• What it will take for developing countries to trust that the climate finance they’ve been promised will actually be paid out;
• Whether global trade and tariff provisions advance or obstruct the transition off fossil fuels in favour of clean energy.
Climate Home has details on the negotiations as of mid- to late Monday.
Canadian COP-Out
So far, Canada has made only a limited contribution to negotiations in Belém—and members of the international community are taking notice. The Canadian delegation, led by Environment and Climate Minister Julie Dabrusin and Canadian Identity and Culture Minister Steven Guilbeault, has defended the role of science and the expertise of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and signed on to a UNESCO declaration on information integrity on climate change, but has not yet pledged its share of new climate financing that will be “necessary to unlock progress across negotiating tracks,” Climate Action Network Canada said in a mid-COP media release.
“The best that can be said of Canada’s presence at COP so far is that it’s not as actively harmful as Prime Minister Carney’s major projects agenda back home,” said CAN-Rac Executive Director Caroline Brouillette. “But we need better.”
[Disclosure: Energy Mix Productions is a member of CAN-Rac.]
“Here in Belém, for the first time ever at the UN climate talks, dozens of countries are calling for a roadmap to end the fossil fuel era,” said Liz McDowell, senior campaigns director at Stand.Earth. “These leaders recognize that if we want to avoid catastrophic climate impacts, we need to work together to phase out oil, gas, and coal—and we need to do it in a way that delivers a just transition for those most vulnerable, especially in the Global South. Against this backdrop, it’s a real slap in the face to see Canada announce a further expansion of fossil fuels.”
“What’s clear from being on the ground at COP30 is that Canadians are being deceived about what constitutes climate leadership,” said Emilia Belliveau, energy transition program manager at Environmental Defence Canada. “Here we see a growing number of nations supporting proposals that advance the phaseout of fossil fuels and momentum coalescing around the call for a global just transition that supports workers and communities—yet Canada is hesitating to add its voice.”
“Classic Canada to announce a new fossil fuel project in the midst of the UN climate talks while ‘affirming’ that it’s still ‘committed’ to climate targets it’s not going to meet because of said fossil projects,” Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, wrote on social media. “Gotta laugh to keep from crying at this point.”
Roadmap to a Fossil Fuel Phasedown
By the middle of last week, momentum was beginning to build for a roadmap for action on the COP28 pledge to phase down oil, gas, and coal. It began at the COP30 opening ceremonies, Bloomberg reported, when Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surprised world leaders with a call to “overcome dependence on fossil fuels”.
On Sunday, citing “COP experts”, The Guardian said that call had the support of about 60 countries, with 40 opposed.
As of Nov. 13, the coalition supporting the plan included Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Kenya, the United Kingdom, and a handful of small island states, Bloomberg said, “even as petrostates bet energy demand will be met by oil and gas in the meantime,” the Financial Times added.
The initiative also had the backing of the Environmental Integrity Group, a negotiating bloc that consists of Georgia, Korea, Liechtenstein, Mexico, Monaco, and Switzerland, Climate Home said.
“A rally is under way,” one delegate told the Times, describing backroom efforts to draw more support to the plan. On Saturday, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance reportedly convened about 40 countries to build momentum, with Denmark and Quebec playing lead roles.
The roadmap proposal “was rejected by oil-producing countries in the Arab Group—among them Saudi Arabia, which last year blocked all mentions of fossil fuels at COP29. Major coal producers in the Like Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs)—among them China and India—are also opposed,” Climate Home wrote. But Brazil and its allies are pushing hard in favour of a phasedown plan.
“It makes no sense to invest in the dirty and inefficient models of the 20th century,” Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva told a breakout session last Tuesday. “We have challenges, but we need to make an effort for a fair and planned transition to leave the dependency on fossil fuels.”
“This is something that we know at some point had to be put forward, because it is the only way to face the problem from the root,” she added over the weekend. “We recognize that it is not easy, and we cannot sell false hopes. Raising the subject is courageous, and I hope [to see] this courage from all, from producers and consumers.”
The dimensions of a win would be for delegates to commit to a roadmap in the final COP30 declaration, setting the stage for countries to start work on the details over the next year. “We will support any decision to create a road map to transition away from fossil fuels here in Belém,” said Jochen Flasbarth, Germany’s state secretary for climate. “It would be a great signal, and I hope we get it.”
“We need to find some sort of road map or way of implementing the just transition away from fossil fuels for all countries,” said Danish climate ambassador Ole Thonke. “Because it will happen one way or the other.”
That thinking found its way into Sunday’s update from COP President do Lago.
“On emissions-cutting and the need to raise ambition—sorely lacking after the latest round of national climate plans (NDCs)—the note includes an option to hold an annual review and explore the ‘opportunities, barriers, and enablers’ to achieve the global efforts agreed at COP28 in Dubai to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by 2030; accelerate action to transition away from fossil fuels; and halt and reverse deforestation,” Climate Home wrote. “This is essentially where any reference to a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels could be anchored.”
Bloomberg reported on the pressure countries can expect to face from the Trump administration if they adopt the roadmap, and on ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods’ calls for an end to “government-led accords that mandate emissions reductions by banning or restricting fossil fuels.” Exxon’s alternative: A new carbon accounting system to track emissions intensity at the product level.
“When Exxon is out front pushing for ‘better’ disclosure, we should honestly reflect,” Lisa Sachs, director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment, told the news agency. “We know exactly where emissions come from and, in fact, Exxon has been the single largest investor-owned emitter in the world.”
In a post for Backchannel, Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Brazil’s Observatório do Clima (Climate Observatory), said the country’s president is determined to get a deal.
“President Lula is a man who chooses his words carefully,” Astrini wrote. And “Lula has been very clear. He wants this meeting in Belém to deliver pathways off fossil fuels, a plan to end deforestation, and a plan to resolve the long running crisis on climate finance. Fossils, forests, finance: three core areas of climate change, delivered under a framework based on justice and poverty alleviation.”
Astrini describes Lula’s position as “a signal that the writing is on the wall for the fossil fuel extractive machine,” even after Brazil became a full member of the OPEC oil cartel and authorized new exploration in the Amazon. “Some can call it a contradiction, as in fact it is, but just taking it as a contradictory act would be too foolish or shallow to describe,” he explained. “Having both, the clear message is that Lula may move together with others, but do not expect him to move alone.”
All of those factors could make this year’s COP an historic opportunity “that we did not necessarily envisage,” Astrini added. “We now have a chance to sketch out a long-term plan to make this country and planet safer and cleaner. A plan that will outlive the series of dictators wedded to fossil fuels who appear to be proliferating just at a time when we need to be moving in the opposite direction. Truly this could be a meeting where we’re looking far beyond election cycles, and far beyond one or two U.S. presidents.”
Back to the Streets
After three years of UN climate summits hosted by deeply repressive petrostates—Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Azerbaijan—civil society was out in force on Saturday with banners, drums, and a funeral procession for fossil fuels, complete with coffins and grim reapers.
“It is the first time since 2021 that protesters have been allowed to demonstrate outside the UN climate talks,” BBC reported. “The last three took place in countries that do not permit public protest.”
“Tens of thousands of people took to the streets around the world on a global day of action that saw over 100 marches in 27 countries—and 70,000 people take to the streets of Belém itself,” the UK’s Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit stated. “Despite the outer perimeter of the COP30 venue looking ready for an all-out invasion, everything passed off without need for the police and army officers to swing into action.”
On Friday, members of the Munduruku tribe blocked the entrance to the COP30 venue in Belém, denounced new infrastructure projects and illegal gold mining near their territory, and demanded a meeting with Lula, Bloomberg wrote. “Enough of using our image to claim sustainability and bio-economy while they destroy our forest,” said Alessandra Korap, a Munduruku leader who won the Goldman Environmental Prize in 2023.
Do Lago and COP30 CEO Ana Toni met with the protesters and negotiated the reopening of the entrance on Friday morning. “The reason for having a COP in the Amazon is for us to listen to the very people that are most vulnerable,” Toni said afterwards. “We are listening to their voice.”
