As Summer Approaches, New Jersey’s Shore Towns Confront an Unrelenting Foe: Sea Level Rise

“Sunny day” flooding is now a thing down the shore, where the tides have risen at twice the global average. Sooner or later, “we’re not going to be able to protect everything everywhere,” one state official says.

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. —The briny bay waters flood the parking lot and beer garden at the Vagabond Kitchen & Taphouse—and not just when it rains. Across town, the water gushes up the sidewalk at the El Rinconcito grocery, sometimes leaving manager Jeraldo Diaz with no choice but to close for the day.   

Even on sunny days, the water is suddenly there, like a quiet invader, especially when the moon is full and the tide is high.

Scientists say that such flooding, which is known as sunny day flooding or nuisance flooding, is a harbinger of the future. New Jersey’s sea level is rising at about twice the global average, and studies predict that the lowest-lying shore points, including this seaside city known for its beachfront casinos, will experience flooding at an ever-growing rate in the coming years.

The state is now poised to advance a slew of new rules aimed at increasing its resilience to climate change and sea level rise. These regulations, known as Resilient Environments and Landscapes (REAL) regulations, are set to be finalized by the fall, in the waning months of Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration. 

But many shore communities, along with business and industry associations, are not happy with what has been proposed, saying that the flooding forecast is overly pessimistic and that the new rules are unwieldy and will hurt landowners and developers. 

The New Jersey League of Municipalities called the rules a “seismic shift” for municipalities, and said it will present “significant challenges” on how the changes affect development, infrastructure and economic strategies. 

Nick Angarone, a high-ranking official with the state Department of Environmental Protection whose job is to make New Jersey more resilient against climate change, believes the new rules are vital for the public’s safety. “They will absolutely make people safer. There’s no doubt in my mind,” he said. 

Sea level rise is a gradual, almost stealthy process, but research consistently projects that the rising waters will one day pose a serious problem for thousands and thousands of people who live along the 130-mile coastline.

But it’s not just New Jersey bracing for rising waters. Climate change is accelerating sea level rise around the world, as glaciers melt and greenhouse gases warm and expand the seas and oceans. 

New Jersey, the nation’s most densely populated state edged with coastal communities packed in the summer, is especially vulnerable because of the double threat of sinking terrain, which is primarily due to groundwater pumping, as well as rising seas.  

“We’re not in a great place right now, and we’re a little bit behind the curve in responding to it,” said Tim Dillingham, the longtime executive director of the American Littoral Society, a coastal conservation nonprofit based in New Jersey that is working with shore communities on ways to ameliorate the risk of flooding.  

But this much seems certain, he said: “Things are only going to get worse.”

Angarone, the Department of Environmental Protection official, said what’s happening already with sea level rise and sunny day flooding is “just a harbinger of what’s coming in the future.”

In more than 1,000 pages of Gov. Murphy’s proposed regulations, a new designation known as the Inundated Risk Zone would be created for especially high-risk areas, mostly along the coast, and would require new homes to be built at least five feet higher than existing standards. Major renovations also would require height modifications. 

The rules also require local governments to address climate resilience in their stormwater and land use planning. 

According to the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center, the sea level at the Jersey Shore has risen 18 inches since the early 1900s—more than twice the global mean rate of about eight inches. And studies consistently predict that the water will continue to rise—and more quickly thanks to global warming. Estimates vary, though, for how much it will rise, with projections generally forecasting a rise of almost a foot by 2050 and perhaps five feet by the end of the century. 

The long-term implications for a state that is low-lying, with a densely populated rim of shore communities that is already heavily developed could impact everything from public safety to property values, taxes, commuting woes and commerce.

Angarone said back bay areas—especially in the southern part of the state along the Delaware Bay—are most at risk, along with lower lying areas, such as Atlantic City, that have long had flooding problems. He said sunny day flooding, which is now mostly an annoyance, will become an almost daily event in some communities, causing an array of problems for residents. 

“That’s going to happen more and more frequently, and in more and more locations,” said Angarone.

Kimberly McKenna, the interim executive director of nearby Stockton University’s Coastal Research Center, said access to and from barrier islands will likely one day become a critical issue.  

“I think the flooding is going to get so bad,” she said, “that they won’t be able to drive through the waters unless we elevate roadways.”  

Of course, no one knows exactly how bad it will become or when. “There’s so many unknowns,” said McKenna, who added that government and communities will need to be ready to adapt to a changing environment and not be caught off-guard by storms or low-pressure systems. “It will be an issue,” she said.

Angarone said the state needs a long-term strategy with stable funding to better prepare—especially with the uncertainty of federal funding under the Trump administration. He worries about shoring up coastal evacuation routes and police, fire and emergency services infrastructure. 

For now, Angarone said, back bay communities are “like the canary in the coal mine” in a scenario that is bound to worsen. “Longer term is even harder,” he said. “We need to recognize that we’re not going to be able to protect everything everywhere, and the state is going to make some difficult decisions.”

It’s an unsettling problem in a state that was deluged by flooding during Superstorm Sandy, which came ashore near here in 2012 and pulverized neighboring communities. While New Jersey does not face the same potential for hurricanes as Florida or other states on the Gulf coast, Sandy and a number of northeasters have shown the impact the weather can have.  

But for now, while many residents are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, municipalities are working in piecemeal fashion to do what they can to protect the shoreline. And there are plenty of projects underway, especially along the back bays, which are more vulnerable to flooding—at least for now—than the Atlantic Ocean. 

Shore communities are building bulkheads and seawalls, installing pumps and flapper valve systems, adding sand to the beaches and restoring marshes and, in some places, even raising the roads, especially along coastal evacuation routes. In Ocean City, for example, several streets and one of the main roads linking the town to the mainland are being raised, just as part of the evacuation route from Long Beach Island was raised a few years ago. 

Savvy residents, meanwhile, keep rain boots handy and track the full moon, direction of the wind and high tides—a prime time for sunny day flooding—so they know it’s time to move their cars. “There’s always stories about people’s cars getting flooded because they forgot to move it,” said Dillingham.

Some of the efforts are novel. 

Several towns are collecting used oyster shells from restaurants and then using the shards of shell to build makeshift reefs that will help block winds from driving the water inland and hopefully revive the local oyster population. 

McKenna recalled a former co-worker who lived in a flood-prone section of Atlantic City and had his sofa outfitted with a pulley system to lift it in case the living room took on water.  

Residents of West Wildwood, meanwhile, are raising their driveways with concrete ramps high enough to withstand the rising waters and the need to move vehicles to higher ground. 

Peter “PJ” Hondros, who runs a popular Facebook page focusing on coastal flooding in Wildwood, in the southern part of the state, said almost every block in the small community along the bay seems to have one or two properties with raised driveways to avoid the need to move vehicles to higher ground.

“That’s very popular in West Wildwood,” he said. “It’s kind of an innovative way to tackle that.” 

At the Vagabond Kitchen & Taproom, the staff springs into action when the waters flood the parking lot and beer garden. So far, the occasional flooding is more of a nuisance than a major problem, said manager Hugh Burnside.

“On the really bad days, it will come up on the sidewalk,” said Burnside, who said the beer garden and parking area in the back of the restaurant will sometimes flood. “There’s been times we’ve had to open up a little later.”  

And every now and then, a patron will decide to leave only to find that there is no easy way around the water. “We’re like, ‘Here’s some trash bags’ for their feet,” said Burnside, noting that a customer will invariably wait an hour or so for the flooding to subside. 

Diaz, the owner of El Rinconcito grocery and produce market in the neighboring Ducktown neighborhood, about a block off the bay, said he is concerned about the nuisance flooding. Last September, he said, it happened five days in a row. 

“Sometimes, it’s really high,” said Diaz. “Sometimes I have to close my business because the water’s at my door.”  

Hondros, 22, who has a degree in environmental science from Stockton and now does data research for McKenna’s coastal center, said he expects big changes in the coming years. “It’s going to be interesting to see what the next 25 or 50 years have in store,” he said.

To Hondros, sea level rise “is arguably the most important topic” that the Jersey Shore now faces. “This is something that’s chronic and getting worse—and not going away.”

Cover photo:  A view of a flood-prone neighborhood in Atlantic City, N.J. Credit: Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images