Despite Catastrophic Flooding, Drought Persists in Parts of Central Texas

Such extreme variability is consistent with a warming climate that amplifies wet and dry air, intensifying both rain and drought—often in communities in close proximity to one another, as in the Texas Hill Country.

Long-term drought persists in Texas despite catastrophic flooding that hit parts of the state last week. The torrential rainfall, which killed at least 120 people, alleviated the dry spell in some areas and boosted dwindling reservoir levels, but it didn’t wash away a broader water supply problem. 

“Despite the heavy precipitation there’s still that long term drought,” said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with the U.S. Drought Monitor. “This is a drought that dates back three-plus years.”

The July 4 rainstorm followed several rainy summer months in Texas. Now, about 30 percent of the state is currently in drought conditions, which is down from 85 percent in April and the lowest figure since September 2021. 

The rain wiped drought from several counties in the Texas Hill Country. But the places hardest hit by flooding, Kerr and Kendall counties, remain in “severe” drought conditions, according to the latest Drought Monitor map issued July 8. 

“Extreme” and “exceptional” drought conditions, the highest rating levels, continue in South and West Texas, including in San Antonio. The recent Hill Country downpours stopped just north of these areas.

“There was really an abrupt southern margin to it,” said John Nielsen-Gammon, director of the Southern Regional Climate Center at Texas A&M University.

For example, rainfall in the Guadalupe River Basin caused historic flooding as the river rose 36 feet in Kerr County. But the adjacent Nueces River Basin, which also covers part of Kerr County and provides water for the city of Corpus Christi, logged virtually no runoff. The Choke Canyon reservoir, the largest reservoir on the Nueces River system, remains 13 percent full, down from 13.2 percent a week ago. 

City officials in Corpus Christi, which supplies water to a half million people, have warned that the Nueces River reservoirs could dry up entirely by next spring. 

The recent rain also missed the recharge areas for the Edwards Aquifer, which supplies water to the City of San Antonio. The aquifer is down more than 30 feet since 2021 as drought conditions have persisted.

“It really needs the rain west of San Antonio to have a major impact on the Edwards Aquifer,” said Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment at Texas State University.

The state’s most dire water shortages, in far West Texas and along the Rio Grande, were also unbroken by the storms in July. 

Most of the rainfall ended up in three large reservoirs of Central Texas that supply water to the sprawling conglomeration of cities in one of the nation’s fastest-growing regions. In the last week, Lake Buchanan rose from 60 to 84 percent full, Canyon Lake rose from 46 to 64 percent full, and Lake Travis, which supplies the City of Austin, rose from 43 to 68 percent full. 

“These key water supply reservoirs have come up significantly, but they are all still below their median levels for this time of year,” said Todd Votteler, principal of Collaborative Water Resolution LLC in Central Texas. “The hydrologic drought is not over yet.”

Concerns over drought and water supply took center stage at this year’s legislative session in Texas, where lawmakers proposed a flurry of actions aimed at heading off projected water shortages. Now, a special legislative session called by the governor will focus on flooding. 

This extreme variability between severe droughts and floods is consistent with projections of climate change caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Warmer air can intensify both wet and dry weather. Human-driven climate change helped fuel the heavy rains that devastated the Hill Country but didn’t end the broader drought.

“These droughts are more frequent, as are the extreme weather events. So it’s like all of the norms are busted,” said Perry Fowler, executive director of the Texas Water Infrastructure Network, a lobbying firm in Austin. “In terms of how you respond to that, it requires more thoughtful planning and additional investments.”

Cover photo:  In Kerrville, Texas, the sun sets over the Guadalupe River on July 6. Heavy rainfall caused severe flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas, leaving more than 120 people reported dead. Credit: Brandon Bell/Getty Images.