The Guardian view on climate-linked disasters: Spain’s tragedy will not be the last

More than 200 deaths and widespread destruction in Valencia are the latest sign of danger in a warming world

The death toll from floods in Spain’s Valencia region has topped 200. A huge clean-up is under way amid desperate conditions, with severe weather warnings still in place. The storms which caused this devastation – with roads turned into muddy rivers, thousands of homes deluged and cars swept into piles – were unprecedented. The gota fría, or “cold drop”, is a regular occurrence when cold autumnal air moves over the warm Mediterranean, causing dense clouds to form. But this rain, according to the Spanish weather service, was 10 times stronger than a normal downpour.

Extreme weather in Spain, and the rest of southern Europe, is more commonly understood to mean dangerous heat, drought and wildfires. The regional government is under attack regarding the lack of sufficient warnings and there is no doubt that the severity of these floods came as a terrible shock.

But in another sense, the events of the past week are part of a pattern. While the destruction is unprecedented, the analysis from climate scientists is familiar. Peer-reviewed attribution studies – which use computer models to ascertain the impact of global heating on specific events – take time to produce. But the head of the World Weather Attribution project said initial calculations suggest that rising temperatures made this week’s floods twice as likely. Another scientist, Stefano Materia, said the reduced absorbency of parched earth means droughts and floods should be viewed as two sides of the same coin. Like Hurricane Helene, which caused chaos and killed more than 220 people in the south-eastern US in September, and Storm Boris, which led to severe floods across central Europe, Spain’s deluge is proof of the havoc wreaked by climate instability.

This week also brought some more hopeful news. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU fell by 8% in 2023, taking them to 37% below 1990 levels thanks to the boom in renewables. But the worrying lack of progress at the UN biodiversity summit in Colombia, combined with warnings about the likely impact on global environmental negotiations of a Trump victory, mean that expectations for this month’s climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, are not high. The fact that the host country is set to expand gas production, while energy giants Shell and BP are both scaling back green investments, points towards a political climate of resurgent denial.

The Cop biodiversity process, which runs in parallel to the Cop climate talks, has never gathered the same momentum, despite the vital importance of protecting nature – including forests and oceans – and the way this is linked to the climate threat. Despite the framework agreed two years ago in Montreal, most countries do not even have an action plan to set alongside their emissions targets. Much of the argument in Colombia has focused on funding for poorer countries, and the role of government subsidies for environmentally harmful industries.

In Spain, a large majority of the public recognises the threat from climate change and favours policies to address it. There, as in much of the world, catastrophic weather events that used to be regarded as “natural disasters” are now, rightly, seen instead as climate disasters. Policies that support people and places to adapt to heightened risks are urgently needed. Clear and timely warnings and recovery plans are part of this. But reducing the threat from dangerous weather, such as that which struck eastern, southern and central Spain this week, remains the greatest political challenge.

Cover photo: A street in Valencia clogged by vehicles and debris after the deadly floods. ‘The events of the past week are part of a pattern.’ Photograph: Anadolu/Getty