Rishi Sunak plays politics on energy
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DRIVING THE DAY
GOOD ENERGY: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is in the east of England this morning, where he’ll spend the last day of recess before the King’s Speech teasing out a new front against Labour; this time in the field of energy. He’ll pop up on our screens midmorning, while Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has the early doors broadcast round (timings below).
The plan: After weeks of winks and nudges (and as Playbook’s Dan Bloom suggested Friday), the government has drawn up plans to hold annual North Sea oil and gas licensing rounds. The proposed energy legislation forms the centerpiece of the King’s Speech and is designed to open a clear divide with Labour, which has ruled out new drilling. Expect Sunak to make the case that the proposals would help ensure energy security and reduce U.K. dependence on hostile states. It’s a further attempt to highlight what No. 10 sees as a winning strategy — easing the financial burden of transitioning to net zero during the cost-of-living crisis by being “realistic” about what is achievable.
A most political King’s Speech: The proposal for yearly licensing auctions is just one of a number of measures forming what appears to be a highly political King’s Speech, aimed at framing the debate going into the next election as much as setting out a legislative program for the coming parliament.
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High energy: POLITICO’s U.K. energy expert Abby Wallace writes in to explain the new proposals. The North Sea Transition Authority — the U.K. regulator in the North Sea — will invite applications for production licenses once a year (licensing has been annual in the past, but the most recent round, which concluded last month, was the first since 2019). These annual rounds will be subject to a handful of tests, though, including whether the U.K. is projected to import more oil and gas from abroad and whether domestic production is less carbon intensive than imported liquified natural gas. More from Abby here for our PRO subscribers.
Sunak says: In words briefed overnight, Sunak was explicit about the contrast with Labour, saying the proposed legislation would provide “clarity and certainty.” He also talked up domestic production, saying it would “play a crucial role in the transition to net zero, supporting jobs and economic growth, while also protecting us from the volatility of international markets and diversifying our energy sources.”
Context: The move is the latest in a string of announcements marking the PM’s new, looser approach to net-zero policy. The government has been keen to stress the continued role for oil and gas in our future energy mix while simultaneously rolling back on several green targets.
The road from dirty to clean: “Rather than importing dirtier fuels from abroad, we want to give industry the certainty to invest in jobs here and unlock billions of pounds for our own transition to clean energy,” Coutinho said. In an op-ed in the Telegraph, she went further in making an explicit party political point, writing: “The Labour Party’s short-term approach of turning off the taps without a plan to replace them would only deepen our dependency on high-emission imports.”
Taking the bait: Coutinho’s oppo Ed Miliband (who remains committed to net-zero targets even if Labour leader Keir Starmer seems to have had a bit of a wobble post the Uxbridge ULEZ by-election) described the proposed bill as a “stunt” which “does nothing to lower bills or deliver energy security.” He added: “We already have regular North Sea oil and gas licensing in Britain, and it is precisely our dependence on fossil fuels that has led to the worst cost of living crisis in generations.”
Spare a thought for: King Charles, never shy of discussing his concerns about climate and environment before becoming king, who will sit on a gold throne Tuesday and read a piece of paper announcing his government’s plans to … ramp-up North Sea oil drilling.
WHAT ELSE? And what else might be in the speech? In their latest edition of the Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast, Sky’s Sam Coates says the theme of the speech will be “Future prosperity, seizing economic opportunities and delivering a bright future.” POLITICO’S Jack Blanchard adds that one Tory MP warned him not to expect “fireworks” from Sunak.
This is pretty explosive: Who needs fireworks when you’ve got Home Secretary Suella Braverman? Her plan leaked to the FT at the weekend to tackle homelessness by, checks notes, introducing legislation to remove homeless people’s homes in the form of banning charities from providing them with tents has narked a number of people — including on her own side. Steve Brine, chair of the Health and Social Care Committee, said on Sunday night’s Westminster Hour: “I utterly resist the line that sleeping rough is a lifestyle choice. I just think it was clumsy and it was crass.”
Not happy: The FT reports that the heads of 15 homelessness charities have written to Braverman warning the proposed crackdown would push more people into destitution without addressing homelessness.
What else? The Telegraph says the King’s Speech will include a crackdown on hidden airline charges. As my colleague Annabelle Dickson reported in Sunday Crunch, the weekend papers were confident the Renters Reform Bill will live to fight another day, and word on the street among those Playbook spoke to Sunday was that a criminal justice bill is nailed on, as is Sunak’s conference rabbit of a smoking ban. The Times’ Oliver Wright has a rundown of what else to expect, plus a handy controversy level barometer.
IS THAT IT? Labour meanwhile suggests that the Conservatives have “given up on governing,” with House of Commons Library figures suggesting MPs are clocking off earlier and earlier as party managers run out of stuff for them to vote on. The Mirror has a write-up of the claims that MPs went home early on five out of every 10 days the Commons sat in the last year. Shadow Leader of the House Lucy Powell said: “The country is crying out for change, yet all we’re getting is Tory failure heaped on more failure.”
ALSO CLOCKING OFF: The PM’s Official Spokesperson, who Sam Coates revealed is off to work in the private sector. It’s usually verboten to name the PMOS, but Playbook will say just once and very quietly that he is (for now) Max Blain. A Dr Who style transmogrification into a new spokesperson will take place soon.
LET HIM IN: A poll for ConHome shows that 70 percent of Tory members want Nigel Farage to be allowed to join the party.
WHAT LIZ DID NEXT: The House magazine’s Tali Fraser has an entertaining piece on what ex-PM Liz Truss is up to now.
MIDDLE EAST CRISIS CONTINUES
PRESSURE ON: The crisis in the Middle East continues to have political ramifications on the domestic front. Much of the focus this week will be on the looming specter of Saturday’s proposed pro-Palestian march, timed for a few hours after the annual Remembrance Day commemorations at the Cenotaph. The Sun and the Telegraph both splash on the increasing pressure from the government on Met chief Mark Rowley to intervene.
Where we are: Rishi Sunak and Suella Braverman have both urged Rowley to stop the marchers (while insisting the decision is one for the police). Remember, Rowley can only recommend to Braverman that she halt the march — but he has to do so for her to have the power to act. There are also various halfway measures which could be taken, including an order to bar any marches from taking a certain route — such as along Whitehall (where ceremonies will take place at the Cenotaph at 11 a.m.).
No plans: Rowley is due to meet with march organizers to discuss their plans. The Palestinian Solidarity Campaign issued a statement Sunday evening saying it had “no intention of marching on or near Whitehall” on Saturday. And no protest is planned for Remembrance Sunday.
But but but: A number of Tory MPs — and some in Labour — remain concerned about the increasingly volatile nature of the protests, particularly as individual politicians are finding themselves targets of abuse. Protesters gathered outside the constituency office of Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting Sunday and called for his resignation after he backed Keir Starmer’s call for a “humanitarian pause” rather than a full cease-fire. Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy is also thought to have been targeted by protesters.
Indeed: The growing schism in the Labour Party over the cease-fire issue means it will not be a happy return to Westminster for Starmer’s party Tuesday. A LOTO spokesperson told Playbook they were aware of reports at the weekend that left-wing MPs could join forces with the SNP to force a vote on the matter during the King’s Speech debates, or possibly as part of an opposition day debate. It’s fair to say this would not be an ideal turn of events for the Labour leadership.
We quit: Burnley Council Leader Afrasiab Anwar quit Labour along with 10 colleagues in protest at Starmer’s refusal to call for a cease-fire, taking the total number of councilors who have resigned since the crisis began to nearly 50. So far, 18 frontbenchers are thought to have defied their leader by calling for a cessation in hostilities.
Don’t quit: In an interview with the i, Conservative peer Sayeeda Warsi said she had advised fellow Muslims in the Labour Party not to quit on the grounds that Starmer is so “weak” they can make their case without fear of repercussions. “My view is why would you resign if you can just say what you believe without getting sacked?” she said.
Backing Keir here: The Jewish Labour Movement and Labour Friends of Israel have written to all Labour councilors backing Starmer’s no cease-fire stance.
ANOTHER DIVIDING LINE: The Tories sense political advantage in Labour’s troubles over Israel and Gaza — so reports my POLITICO colleague Esther Webber.
DON’T TELL JEREMY: Former U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, who was something of a hero to many on the left in this country, has come out against an immediate cease-fire.
BORIS IN ISRAEL: Ex-PM Boris Johnson is in Israel, where he toured a site of a Hamas massacre, and called on allies to “stay the course.” The full interview will run on GB News during today and he’s already spoken to the Telegraph, natch.
WELCOME HOME: First Minister Humza Yousaf tweeted this pic of his in laws who have arrived home in Scotland safely after being stranded in Gaza for nearly four weeks.
Still stranded: The Guardian reports on cases of parents and children they said were separated at the border, after the Foreign Office blocked the dependents of citizens from the lists of those allowed to leave via the Rafah crossing. A spokesperson told the paper dependents would need a visa before traveling to the U.K.
IT’S COMPLICATED: Former U.S. President Barack Obama has some trenchant thoughts on the current toxic polarization we’re seeing “just about everywhere” right now.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
PARLIAMENT: Back Tuesday.
IN SPITE OF BREXIT? A report by the free marketeer Institute of Economic Affairs argues that U.K.-EU trade does “not show a Brexit effect,” in a paper that will be cited in a speech by Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, my POLITICO colleague Stefan Boscia writes in to say. It argues “there has been no real disparity between U.K. trade with EU and non-EU countries” post-Brexit. The story splashes the Express.
Words from trade week: Speaking at International Trade Week, Badenoch will say that “we should stop talking ourselves down, and instead talk ourselves up.” “Contrary to some media reports and many pre-Brexit establishment voices, the data says Brexit has not had a major impact on U.K.–EU trade,” she will add.
But but but: The reports’ findings are very different when we take inflation into account. U.K. goods exports to the EU, adjusted for inflation, were 7 percent lower in 2022 than in 2019. Inflation-adjusted goods imports from the EU during that period increased by just 1.4 percent.
And also: The Independent splashes on claims that “Brexit red tape” has resulted has made it harder to secure key medicines.
FORGET THE KING’S SPEECH: The really important political moment this month is the Autumn Statement in just over two weeks’ time. And the briefing has already begun — the Times splashes on claims that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has a £15 billion boost in his coffers thanks to higher tax take (via numbers crunched by the Resolution Foundation), which will fuel Tory demands for corresponding tax cuts. The Times and Mail both suggest he could do this by extending temporary tax breaks that reward firms for investing in their business.
More Autumn Statement kites: The Telegraph reckons benefits claimants will have their bank accounts checked to make sure they’re not lying about their savings. And also on welfare, the i reports on plans for a “111 style” phone hotline which would offer help to the long-term sick to get back to work.
EXPLOSIVE: Westminster continues to await developments in the explosive weekend story alleging that former Tory Chair Jake Berry and ex-Chief Whip Wendy Morton wrote to the police to complain about a Conservative cover-up involving an MP who they suggested could have committed as many as five rapes. The story splashes the Mail today, with suggestions that Rishi Sunak is now under pressure to investigate.
Wot no wallpaper: In the latest extract from what the Mail is contractually obliged to describe as her bombshell book, Nadine Dorries says the megabucks gold wallpaper Carrie Johnson was supposed to have festooned Downing Street with never existed. Instead, Dorries quotes a source she describes as “Moneypenny” saying: “What Boris and Carrie did was have the dining room wall painted red to celebrate the red wall victories in the election.”
Party on: Also, according to Nads, BoJo didn’t go to any parties. Or know about any parties. And if he did, then so did Rishi. So there.
ON THE CHANCELLOR’S IN-TRAY: A cross-party letter signed by 119 council leaders to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt calls on him to address the surge in use of temporary accommodation by councils when people face homelessness.
On that headroom: The U.K. faces a £615 billion funding challenge to meet energy, transport and housing infrastructure requirements by 2030, research for the Investment Delivery Forum shows.
Labouring the point: Britain’s regional inequality is worse than any other developed country due to low productivity which causes lower social mobility, a Labour Together report argues. The paper says a Labour government could focus investment on energy independence, homes and infrastructure.
BABY BUST: British women are having almost one fewer children than they wish to, polling commissioned by Tory MP Miriam Cates for the New Social Covenant Unit found — Cates has an op-ed on the topic in the Telegraph.
ALL WORK AND NO PLAY: The U.K.’s poor work-life balance is fueling a public health crisis and damaging the economy by creating barriers to work, a report from the Fabian Society and German think tank Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung says.
AT THE COVID INQUIRY: Former Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Clare Lombardelli and former Deputy Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister Stuart Glassborow appear before the COVID Inquiry from 10.30 a.m., with former Downing Street adviser Ben Warner giving evidence in the afternoon.
SW1 EVENTS: The Resolution Foundation previews the forthcoming Autumn Statement with speakers including the BBC’s Chief Economics Correspondent Dharshini David at 9.30 a.m. … the Mile End Institute has an in conversation event with Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting at 6 p.m. … and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaks about her book The Women Who Made Modern Economics at the London School of Economics from 6.30 p.m.
**SAF? Hydrogen? Electric planes? What's the future of the aviation industry? Join POLITICO Live for drinks on November 27 to find out. Apply for your seat today!
BEYOND THE M25
PAYING TRIBUTE: Northern Irish politicians from across the political spectrum paid tribute to David Hilditch, who died aged 60 after serving as a DUP MLA from 1998 until September 2023 — DUP MP Sammy Wilson wrote an obituary in the Belfast Telegraph.
NOT ON: Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlić-Radman apologized after attempting to greet German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock with a kiss at an EU enlargement conference last week, stating his diplomatic offering “might have turned out awkwardly” — my colleague Nicolas Camut has the full story.
UKRAINE UPDATE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the idea the country’s war with Russia had reached a stalemate, saying “They thought that they would checkmate us, but this didn’t happen” — my colleagues Stateside have more details. It comes as Ukraine’s military chiefs face growing criticism over a Russian missile strike last week that killed more than 20 Ukrainian soldiers at an award ceremony — via the BBC.
Zelenskyy aide slams West over ‘war fatigue’: Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s top aide Andrii Yermak has pushed back on the idea that many in the West are growing tired of the war. Speaking to POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy, Yermak said those feeling tired “don’t want to wake up in a world tomorrow where there will be less freedom and less security, and the consequences of this last for decades.” He also insisted that Ukraine “will never live in the frozen conflict mode.” Read the full interview here.
TRUMP TESTIFIES: Former U.S. President Donald Trump takes the stand today in his New York civil fraud trial after being accused of inflating assets on financial statements — CNN has the details. It comes as New York Times and Siena College polling found Trump led U.S. President Joe Biden in four battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania — that he lost in 2020. My colleagues Stateside have a rundown of the problems facing President Joe Biden.
SHAPPS AWAY: Grant Shapps flies to Tokyo for his first visit to the Indo-Pacific as defense secretary, where he’ll meet his Japanese counterpart to discuss defense commitments from the Hiroshima Accord — the U.K. and Japan’s global strategic partnership. On Tuesday he’ll join Foreign Secretary James Cleverly ahead of the G7 for a 2+2 meeting of defense and foreign secretaries from both nations.
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MEDIA ROUND
Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … Today program (7.50 a.m.) … Good Morning Scotland (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.).
Shadow Commons leader Lucy Powell broadcast round: TalkTV (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.10 a.m.) … LBC News (8.40 a.m.) … GB News (9.15 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Burnley Council Leader Afrasiab Anwar (7.20 a.m.) … Crossbench peer John Bird (8.20 a.m.) … Spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces Peter Lerner (8.45 a.m.) … Tory MP Miriam Cates (8.50 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Met Police Superintendent Nusrit Mehtab (7.30 a.m.) … former U.K. Ambassador to Lebanon Tom Fletcher (7.45 a.m.) … former Israeli Ambassador to the U.K. Mark Regev (8.45 a.m.).
Also on TalkTV Breakfast: Tory peer Ed Vaizey … former Met Police Superintendent Leroy Logan … former Met Police Detective Superintendent Shabnam Chaudhri.
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former National Counter Terrorism Coordinator Nick Aldworth (7.10 a.m.) … former Met Police Detective Chief Inspector Simon Harding (8.20 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Tory MP Bob Seely … Shadow Cabinet Office Minister Jenny Chapman … journalist Nancy Fielder … former Tory SpAd Salma Shah.
Mariella Frostrup (Times Radio): SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn (2 p.m.).
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: U.K. Tories draw dividing lines over Gaza conflict.
Daily Express: Brexit trade freedom “boost” for U.K. economy.
Daily Mail: Pressure on Tories over “serial rapist” MP cover-up.
Daily Mirror: Saving lives in hell.
Daily Star: Here we blow again!
Financial Times: Sunak to unveil bill for new licenses to drill more North Sea oil and gas.
i: U.K.’s national security council “not prepared for heightened terror threat.”
Metro: Hands off Cenotaph.
The Daily Telegraph: Met chief urged to ban Armistice Day protest.
The Guardian: Israeli strikes on Gaza intensify as violence on Lebanon border flares.
The Independent: NHS hit by “severe” drug shortages due to Brexit red tape.
The Sun: Show some respect.
The Times: Israel steps up assault on Hamas.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny and a moderate breeze. Highs of 13C.
WELCOME: Sophie Inge joins POLITICO today as a U.K. trade reporter, having previously worked at Research Fortnight. Welcome aboard!
CONGRATS TO: Assistant Government Whip Fay Jones married her husband Tim at the weekend, declaring on X she had waited decades to use the line: “Reader, I married him.” Fellow 2019 Tories in attendance included: Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho … Pensions Minister Laura Trott … Leveling-Up Minister Jacob Young … Deputy Tory Chair Nickie Aiken … Assistant Government Whip Ruth Edwards … and MPs Laura Farris and Katherine Fletcher.
WELL DONE: Shadow Immigration Minister Stephen Kinnock ran the Richard Burton 10k, an annual charity road race in the Welsh village of Cwmafan, in 58 minutes.
CHICKEN RUN LATEST: Both Culture Minister Stuart Andrew and Transport Minister Richard Holden were beaten by National Pig Association adviser and Deputy Leader for East Riding of Yorkshire Council Charlie Dewhirst in the Tory selection for the East Yorkshire seat of Bridlington and The Wolds — Michael Crick has the details.
NOTE OF CONTRITION: Deputy Tory Chair Lee Anderson apologized to NHS anaesthetist Tom Dolphin after sharing a MailOnline article on X, accepting his words were “misleading.”
BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME: Former Health Secretary Matt Hancock once again failed to win a reality TV show, losing out to singer Gareth Gates in the Celebrity SAS: Who Dares Wins final. Hancock was nonetheless described by the umpire as “really good at lying” — the Guardian has a write-up. Gates is interviewed about how he beat Hancock in the Times.
SAVING FACE: Party conference season may be long gone, but the stresses it causes politicians are well evidenced in the faces of Jim Callaghan, Shirley Williams, Barbara Castle and Willie Whitelaw at the National Portrait Gallery (H/t the Spectator’s James Heale).
LISTEN TO: Apella Advisors’ James Kirkup presents an episode of Radio 4’s Analysis looking at the impact of poor mental health on the workforce, with contributors including Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride and Shadow Employment Minister Alison McGovern at 8.30 p.m.
NOAH’S CULTURE FIX: The latest series of Prime Ministers’ Props, which examines how an object or prop can define a politician, kicks off with an episode about Archibald Primrose’s race horses on Radio 4 at 9.45 a.m.
NOW READ: In the Times, Trevor Phillips writes about how the war in Israel and Gaza has affected people’s sense of their identity in the U.K.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TUESDAY MORNING: Rosa Prince.
BIRTHDAYS: Public Health Minister Neil O’Brien … Newspaper executive David Montgomery … PA Chief Political Photographer Stefan Rousseau.
