Rooftop solar could meet 77% of total grid demand in Australia by 2026

Rooftop solar systems are going to have such an impact in coming years that they will meet up to 77 per cent of total grid demand on occasions within five years, sending minimum operating demand down to levels that had never been contemplated until recently.

The Australian Energy Market Operator says the pace of rooftop solar is increasing beyond its own expectations and homes and businesses will likely add at least another 8.9GW by 2025, on top of the existing capacity of 14GW.

This will have a major impact on prices, demand and the operations of the grid. These solar systems alone could supply up to 77% of total electricity demand at times by 2026 in the four mainland states that are part of the National Electricity Market (South Australia, Victoria, NSW and Queensland).

“As a result, minimum operational demand across the NEM mainland is expected to drop to a record low of 4 to 6GW by 2025, down from 15GW in 2019,” AEMO says.

[Giles Parkinson]

31 August 2021

IEEFA