Record-high Greek gas demand brings supply risks: experts

Partly due to the Ukraine war, Greece has became a net exporter of power to North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Albania and Italy, pushing up domestic gas demand.

Greece’s gas demand reached a record high in February amid rising dependence on LNG imports, which exposes the country to supply and price volatility risks moving forward, sources said.

On February 24th, Greece set a new all-time high in domestic gas demand, reaching 357 GWh, thus breaking the previous record of 328 GWh from January 15th, gas grid operator DESFA said.

According to DESFA data, in the first two months of 2025 gas demand surged 49.4% to 15.5 TWh, compared to 10.4 TWh in the same period last year.

DESFA said this was driven by increased gas use for electricity production, as well as rising demand from households and businesses and increasing gas exports, highlighting the growing role of gas in the country’s energy transition.

In addition, electricity exports are contributing to drive up gas demand, with Greece becoming a net exporter of electricity in 2024, Ana-Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis told Gas Outlook.

Greece became a net exporter of power to North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Albania and Italy in recent months, with demand in the region increasing partly due to Ukraine’s import needs.

Based on Eurostat data, gas use for power generation and heat increased by 53% year-on-year in January 2025, with the two sectors combined accounting for 63% of total gas consumption.

“In 2023, IEA reported that Greece was making progress on its energy transition, including simplifying licensing procedures for renewable projects and investigating options for offshore wind, but the increase in gas consumption is showing a different trend,” she said.

After decreasing by 20% in 2022 to 5.2 billion cubic meters, and by 10% in 2023 to 4.7 bcm, Greece’s gas consumption increased by 31% in 2024 to 6.2 bcm, she noted.

Critics warned that the growing role of gas in the energy mix comes with supply risks and also leads to higher energy bills for consumers.

U.S. LNG

Much of the gas is imported as LNG, which tends to be more expensive than pipeline gas, Leo Drollas, an independent energy consultant told Gas Outlook.

“While the LNG used to come from Algeria, it is now increasingly more U.S. gas” he said.

Roughly 80% of LNG imports at the Greek terminal of Revithoussa were of U.S. origin in the past two months, with an increase in U.S. LNG shipments to Greece of over 60% year-on-year, he said.

A second LNG terminal in Alexandropoulis was commissioned in October 2024.

Plans for a third terminal, Dioriga Gas FSRU, are underway amid goals to double LNG import capacity, with more FSRUs still being considered.

LNG of U.S. origin accounts for over 60% of LNG imports to Greece and covers around 20% of Greece’s total gas demand, according to the US International Trade Administration, a branch of the US Department of Commerce.

In particular, in 2024 Revithoussa terminal received 27 LNG tankers of which 19 was U.S. LNG.

“The above facts show that the US has emerged as the cornerstone of Greece’s LNG imports, underscoring the critical role of US LNG in ensuring Greece’s energy security amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape,” the ITA said.

“These developments and several inter-connector projects will bring meaningful opportunities for US infrastructure, project management and energy firms in the years to come,” it added.

While LNG is “more secure than pipeline gas from Russia,” geopolitical risks related to tensions with neighbouring countries such as Turkey might affect shipments transiting the Aegean, Drollas noted.

An increase in installed renewable capacity was also driving the growth in gas-fired power generation for balancing purposes, amid a lack of battery storage capacity, he said.

Meanwhile, domestic hydrocarbon production has been hampered by a slow permitting process, with the EU backing a shift away from fossil fuels and towards more renewable investments, he noted.

“The gas market is very volatile,” Jaller-Makarewicz said.

“Geopolitical factors keep influencing gas price fluctuations and thus create a risk to the security of energy supply of EU countries.”

“The more a country increases its gas consumption and imports, the more the country inherits this price volatility,” with electricity tariffs in Greece increasing by up to 62% in December 2024. 

“Greece has been paying one of the highest prices for imported LNG,” she added.

Meanwhile, DESFA said that recent auctions for LNG unloading slots and regasification capacity at the Revithoussa LNG Terminal for the period 2025-2039 attracted strong market interest, with nearly all slots for the period 2025-2030 already booked and interest being recorded up to 2032.

Nonetheless, while Greece has increased its gas consumption, the utilisation rate of Revythoussa LNG terminal was 22% in 2024 and has had similar values in 2025, she noted, adding that this tend “sheds serious doubts on Greece’s plans for new LNG infrastructure.”

Cover photo:  Power station chimneys on the Greek island of Samos (Photo: Wiki Commons/Bob&Anne Powell)