‘Positive Tipping Points’ Could Trigger Self-Sustaining Climate Breakthroughs

A new study outlines a way to identify climate actions that could trigger “positive tipping points”—large, self-propelling shifts that accelerate once they’re under way, helping speed a global decarbonization effort that researchers warn is far too slow.

The key, scientists say, is knowing where to push, and making sure change is fair as well as fast.

“The global economy is decarbonizing at least five times too slowly to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C,” said Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, which carried out the research.

“The challenge now is to identify potential positive tipping points, and the actions that can bring them forward—while avoiding wishful thinking about their existence, or oversimplification of their nature, drivers, and impacts.”

The study published in the journal Sustainable Science addresses recurring calls for policymakers to focus on selected positive tipping points that can become the new norm and propel decarbonization to help avert catastrophic climate change. Technologies like electric vehicles and solar power—both increasingly popular and price-competitive—are likely examples of positive tipping points, suggest the World Economic Forum and other organizations.

In the new study, researchers created a method to pinpoint which popular technologies or actions have the potential to bring about this change—and which ones are overhyped.

“We know positive tipping can happen in sectors such as power and road transport, and we think the United Kingdom is close to a tipping point in the uptake of heat pumps,” said Dr. Steve Smith, also from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.

“In other sectors there is little sign of approaching tipping points and in a few, such as nuclear power and concrete production, we should not expect there to be tipping points at all.” Other transformations, like a major shift away from meat consumption, could “be more likely than they appear,” Smith added.

The method begins with identifying a system—such as the global economy, an economic sector, a country, or even a city—and determining whether that system has potential for a positive tipping point. The researchers lay out two approaches: an empirical method, which considers whether similar systems have “tipped” in analogous areas, and a process-based method that models what could cause a system to tip. They the two are best used in combination.

Next steps involve a series of questions that further define the nature of the tipping point, what factors might affect it or delay its adoption, and what actions could help it progress. This last step focuses strongly on the role that policy and governments can play in helping a new technologies or actions break out of a niche and become a tipping point—for instance through regulation, mandates, and investments.

Ultimately, the line of questioning leads to designing and implementing interventions to trigger the tipping point.

While the study focused on tipping points for a low-carbon transition, the researchers acknowledge that “rapid decarbonization does not necessarily contribute to achieving other sustainable development goals or sustainability justice.” The methodology, therefore, “should be nested within a broader, reflexive approach to achieving transformative change towards sustainability.”

Tipping away from incumbent systems can also create justice concerns that must be weighed against the harms and inequalities alleviated by reducing emissions, the researchers say.

Cover photo:  Karsten Würth (@inf1783)/wikimedia commons