The Guardian view on terror in Moscow: Putin’s cynical blame game should fool no one

Baseless claims that Ukraine played a role in the assault on a concert hall should not distract from a failure to heed credible warnings

The worst terrorist attack on their soil for two decades has left Russians in shock and looking for explanations. Over the weekend, survivors graphically conveyed the horror that unfolded on Friday evening inside the Crocus City Hall, in Moscow’s commuter belt. Hunted down by at least four gunmen, minutes before a rock concert was due to begin, 137 people have so far lost their lives. That death toll is almost certain to rise, given the number of seriously wounded.

After an atrocity that recalls all too clearly the Islamic State attacks on the Bataclan nightclub in Paris and Manchester Arena, the world has mourned with Russia. But after terror has come obfuscation and disinformation. Though all available evidence suggests this murderous rampage was the work of a branch of IS based principally in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan, the Kremlin is cynically choosing to exploit the carnage for propaganda purposes against Ukraine.

On Sunday evening, four Tajik citizens were charged with the attack, appearing in court after having clearly been beaten and tortured. But Vladimir Putin has baselessly claimed that the fleeing attackers were seeking to cross the Ukrainian border, where Ukraine planned to “open a window” for them. Assertions by US intelligence agencies that IS was responsible, and acting alone, have been derided by Kremlin spokespeople as attempts to exculpate Kyiv.

This shameless opportunism may be being deployed as a distraction technique, or as a prelude to a new expanded offensive in Ukraine. On Monday, another wave of missiles was launched at Kyiv, as part of an apparent escalation of the aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Whether the misinformation will cut much ice with ordinary Russians is moot, given the evidence already out there – including an IS tape of the attack. But the approach underlines the extent to which the warped perspectives of Mr Putin’s paranoid regime have become a danger to ordinary Russians, as well as the populations of neighbouring states.

Specific US intelligence on IS plots to attack concert halls was passed on to Russia earlier this month. But the warning was dismissed as bad‑faith psyops from Washington, and security at the Crocus City Hall appeared to be negligently light. And as wartime Russia’s security apparatus has focused its attention on cracking down on all forms of domestic dissent, and transferring personnel to occupied eastern Ukraine, there have been fewer resources available to concentrate on the resurgent jihadist threat in central Asia. In January, Islamic State Khorasan Province – the group almost certainly behind the Moscow attack – carried out twin bombings in Iran. It is believed to also have designs on western European targets. But Moscow’s delusional focus has been on an imaginary existential threat from Nato and the west rather than a real one from the east.

After an appalling attack such as Friday’s, evidence of warnings ignored and misplaced priorities could be expected to lead to high-profile sackings and resignations. In Mr Putin’s Russia that is not how things work. Instead, what appears to be the most lethal IS assault to take place on European soil is likely to lead to draconian treatment for minorities deemed suspect, and an increased determination to grind out a definitive military victory in Ukraine. On both sides of the Ukrainian border, civilians will continue to pay the price of Mr Putin’s revanchist obsessions, and his determination to maintain his grip on power.

Cover photo: A suspect in the Crocus City Hall attack sits behind glass in a courtroom in Basmanny district court, Moscow. Photograph: Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP