France’s electricity consumption set to rise sharply by 2030

France will reach the level of electricity consumption expected in 2050 as early as 2030-2035, according to the latest forecasts by RTE, the country’s electricity network operator. However, many uncertainties remain.

On Wednesday (7 June), RTE published a progress report on its forecast for France’s electricity mix between 2030 and 2035, which will be ready in September.

Assuming France achieves its decarbonisation and reindustrialisation targets, electricity consumption could rise to 580-640 TWh by 2035, equivalent to what the grid operator had forecasted for 2050 in its “Future Energy 2050” report published at the end of 2021.

This new scenario is therefore “one of transformation, even revolution: both on an industrial level and in terms of practical uses”, explains Thomas Veyrenc, head of strategy and evaluation at RTE.

“Our path is based on the sum of the needs that have been brought to our attention, sector by sector,” adds Xavier Piechaczyk, RTE’s Executive Board Chairman, interviewed by Le Monde.

The needs are increasing as the industry revises its electricity requirements to compensate for the lack of Russian gas since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, explains RTE.

RTE couldn’t have anticipated this in its scenarios for 2050, published before the Russian aggression, nor could it have anticipated the EU deal on increasing the share of renewable energy to 42.5% of final energy consumption in the EU by 2030, reached at the end of March. The EU’s share of renewables currently amounts to 22%.

The new targets also bolster the resources needed to achieve a 55% cut in the EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared with 1990 levels, as set out in the “Fit for 55” package of July 2021.

This proves that “the EU is finally being seen as a standard-bearer for the economy’s decarbonisation. Its targets are becoming drivers for speed rather than constraints,” Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, an energy policy researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, told EURACTIV.fr.

cover photo:n a scenario where France achieves its decarbonisation and reindustrialisation targets, electricity consumption could rise to 580 to 640 TWh by 2035, equivalent to what the grid operator had forecasted for 2050 in its "Future Energy 2050" report published at the end of 2021. [fru-fru / Shutterstock]