Even moderate CO2 emissions could lead to 7°C of warming by 2200

There's a small chance of very high warming even with moderate future emissions, according to a computer model exploring what could happen in the next thousand years

Even with moderate emissions of greenhouse gases, a scenario currently expected to warm the planet by about 3°C, there is a 1-in-10 chance of reaching 7°C of warming in around 200 years. That is according to a climate model that has explored what could happen over the next thousand years.

“Three degrees is already very bad, of course,” says Andrey Ganopolski at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “Seven is not twice as bad as 3, or even three times as bad. It’s probably 10 times worse, because many things are non-linear.”

The model also shows that even if all CO2 emissions stop this century, there is around a 1-in-10 chance that the planet could still warm by more than 3°C.

How much hotter the planet gets depends partly on how much CO2 and other greenhouse gases we pump into the atmosphere, and partly on how sensitive the climate is to increases in greenhouse gases.

Cover photo:  Further warming will lead to more catastrophic consequences such as severe wildfires