EU’s looming green election backlash – here’s what to expect

Over the past weeks, several European political parties have circulated draft versions of their manifestos for the upcoming EU elections between 6-9 June. Euractiv walks you through the potential implications for energy and environment policy.

In short, all signs point to a right-wing turn after the Green Wave of the last EU election in 2019.

EPP: Economy first, environment last. Most significant is the draft manifesto of the European People’s Party (EPP), which brings together centre-right and conservative parties from across Europe.

Latest opinion polls show the EPP will keep their top spot in the European Parliament after the elections – albeit by a smaller margin, with 23.5% of the votes and 178 seats, down from 182 currently – making them the biggest group in the EU assembly and the most likely to choose the next European Commission president.

So, what’s their programme? The EPP’s draft manifesto, obtained by Euractiv, is marked by the near absence of environmental policy. The word appears only four times in the 14-page document, and when it does, it is framed in the context of Europe’s economic rivalry with competitors like China and the US.

“Economic prosperity, ambitious environmental protection and social peace can only succeed in Europe if our economy is also successful worldwide. This is why competitiveness is so crucial,” the EPP manifesto says. Max Griera has the story.

Rebalancing green priorities. The downgrade of environmental policy in the EPP election programme is counterbalanced by the elevation of climate change as the top green priority – although with a refocused attention to economic competitiveness and Europe’s re-industrialisation.

“We believe in European leadership in climate protection not only to safeguard our planet but also to promote economic prosperity,” the EPP’s draft manifesto says.

“Without climate protection, our economy cannot remain competitive in the long term, but without a competitive economy, there can be no sustainable climate protection either,” it adds, calling for “less bureaucracy” in the EU’s green policymaking.

This is consistent with the EPP’s right-wing turn in 2022 when it threatened to scupper a crucial reform of the EU’s carbon market and its failed attempt last year to kill the EU’s nature restoration law, a Green Deal priority that was rejected by the EPP leadership as too left-leaning.

The draft manifesto also confirms the EPP’s belief that climate change and access to affordable clean energy must be the top priority to ensure the competitiveness of the EU’s industry.

“There is sometimes a trade-off between climate and biodiversity, climate and chemicals, and other issues,” the group’s environment spokesperson in Parliament recently said.

Specifically, the EPP advocates a technology-neutral approach to climate policy, saying it will support all renewable energies “equally”, including biomass.

As for nuclear, the EPP says it supports it “where and when it makes sense” – a significant opening to the dozen pro-nuclear EU countries, including France.

What’s clear is that the EPP will oppose bans on any kind of technology: “We reject a ban policy – such as the ban on combustion engines – and will also revise it as soon as possible,” the draft manifesto says.

S&D: Green deal ‘with a red heart’. In the opposite corner are the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), who are expected to remain the European Parliament’s second biggest group after the June EU election, with 18.3% of the votes according to opinion polls (143 seats, down from 154 in the current Parliament).

Their approach to green policies differs significantly from the EPP’s.

The S&D’s draft election manifesto, also obtained by Euractiv, rejects a “regulatory” pause on green policies, as called for by French President Emmanuel Macron and echoed in the EPP’s draft manifesto.

“In the race to reach climate neutrality, no one must be abandoned, and there can be no pause,” reads the S&D’s draft programme, adding that the Green Deal must go on “with a red heart.”

In fact, one of S&D’s top political priorities is the concept of a “Green Social Deal,” placing social policy and workers’ rights at the centre of a continued green transition.

These policies must be backed by “an ambitious European budget”, the S&D manifesto continues, including an “Investment Plan for the Green and Digital Transitions” to support Europe’s reindustrialisation, backed by joint borrowing.

Another key priority is the external dimension of the Green Deal, with the promotion of a “new partnership of equals with the Global South” and a new Africa-EU partnership focused on “the economy, green energy, climate changes, migration and democracy”. Max Griera has the details.

Nationalist and far-right surge. The other big trend in opinion polls is the unrelenting surge of extreme-right parties, with the far-right Identify and Democracy (ID) group expected to win 12.5% of votes, followed by the nationalist European Conservative and Reformists group (ECR) polling at 10.9%. In numbers, this is expected to result in 93 seats for ID, up from 73 in the current Parliament, and 80 seats for ECR, up from the current 62.

None of them have adopted election manifestos, but their overarching political objective is clear: giving back control of EU policies to the national level, including on energy and environment.

This translates into green protectionism in the case of the ID group, which is expected to be heavily dominated by the French Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen. Beyond that, elected deputies from the ID group are known for their poor attendance records and lack of interest in Parliamentary affairs, which makes their overall influence limited.

The ECR group, for its part, is dominated by Polish MEPs, which probably explains their insistence on making the green transition “fair and inclusive”, with a focus on “mining regions” and transfers of EU funds to regions most affected by the energy transition – i.e. from Germany to Poland.

Liberals: a regulatory pause. At the centre of the political spectrum, things are in flux. Renew Europe, currently the Parliament’s third-largest political group with 108 seats, is projected to shrink to 84 seats, with 10.3% of the votes, according to the latest January poll.

The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), Renew’s mother party, is currently in the process of finalising its election manifesto. An early draft, seen by Euractiv, shows a return to ALDE’s liberal roots, with a marked focus on the EU single market.

The EU single market is “still the backbone of our competitiveness and ability to create jobs,” the draft argues, saying it must be put “back on the agenda after years of neglect under the EPP-led European Commission”. Max Griera has the story.

The goal here is similar to the EPP’s: “prioritise cutting administrative burdens and red tape” and follow the principle of “one market, one rule” to avoid businesses having to comply with 27 different sets of legislation.

On green policies, the top priority is “implementation of adopted energy and climate rules” instead of adopting new ones, a position that echoes French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a regulatory pause on green legislation after the adoption of the European Green Deal.

Looking towards the elections, the group’s leader in the European Parliament, Valérie Hayer, said she would oppose attempts to reopen the European Green Deal. “We must not undo what has already been done,” she told Euractiv. Read the interview here by Max Griera and Théo Bourgery-Gonse.

Green debacle. Finally, the Greens are in for an electoral debacle, with projections showing they will get 6.8% of the votes and win 50 seats, down from 74 in the current Parliament.

Yet, the Greens are the most advanced in elaborating their electoral programme, with a 37-page manifesto, seen by Euractiv, titled “The courage to change”.

The first chapter focuses on environmental topics, with climate protection at the top, including the end of fossil fuels and “renewable energy for all”.

Nuclear power is mentioned once: “We will fight to revise the Green Taxonomy to make sure that gas and nuclear are not greenwashed as ‘sustainable’,” the draft says.

But social rights also feature highly, with detailed proposals on “affordable housing for all”, water, mobility and healthcare. “A green society is a caring society,” one of the headings says, in what could be one of the party’s main slogans for the elections. Max Griera and Nick Alipour take a closer look.

Leftists nearing oblivion. Finally, the Left political party have yet to adopt their election manifesto. But their position on environmental topics is already well-known and close to those of the Greens, although more radical. Their Parliamentary weight after the election is due to decrease, with just under 5.9% of the vote and 37 seats, down from 41 in the current Parliament, making them the smallest faction.

Cover photo: Green-Brief-Hubs-ARTICLE-template-800x450-2