Africa and climate change

The global scientific community agrees that human influence on the earth’s climate is unequivocal, and that recent changes have had a widespread and unprecedented impact on humans and natural systems (IPCC, 2021). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international standard-bearer for climate science, has emphasized that future warming will cause further and “long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems” (IPCC, 2014).

The IPCC is also unequivocal that “limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, which – together with adaptation – can limit climate change risks” (IPCC, 2014).

The earth has already warmed by more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels, and the most recent assessments show that the global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040 (IPCC, 2021). The international community recognizes global warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C as a point of no return in terms of risks and has therefore committed to taking country-level actions that would prevent a further rise to 2°C and beyond (UNFCCC, 2015). However, on the current trajectory, the world is heading towards a temperature rise exceeding 3°C from pre-industrial times by the end of this century (UNEP, 2020), and therefore towards myriad disruptions in planetary climate systems.

Africa impacted the most by climate change
Africa is already witnessing climate change and is amongst the regions that will experience the most devastating consequences of projected climate trends. Many parts of our continent are warming at a faster rate than the global average and facing an above-average sea-level rise (IPCC, 2021).

Furthermore, our continent contains some of the world’s most significant climate change ‘hotspots’ (IPCC, 2019). Further sea-level rises caused by additional global warming will contribute to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas and along most sandy coasts, and in coastal erosion.

Climate change will also amplify existing stress on water availability in Africa. The IPCC underscores that climate change will be superimposed onto several already water-stressed catchments and river basins. Water resources on the continent are subjected to high hydro-climatic variability over space and time and are a key constraint on our continued economic development (IPCC, 2014).

Recent IPCC model projections for future rainfall in Africa under three temperature scenarios demonstrate that the intensity of heavy precipitation events and pluvial flooding is expected to increase across East, West and Central Africa, while a likely reduction in total rainfall over northern Africa and southwestern Africa will increase drying and agricultural and ecological droughts.

African countries, thus, must prepare themselves for significant shifts in their ecosystems and biodiversity. The IPCC highlights the risk of shifting ranges of some species and ecosystems due to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate change, thus negatively affecting economic sectors and livelihoods that depend on such ecosystems and natural resources. Additional complexity is derived from the fact that different regions of our continent will not face the same climate threats and stresses; and are also differently equipped to manage them.

One of the biggest threats to Africa’s people and their way of life, as emphasized by the IPCC, is how climate change will interact with non-climate drivers and stressors to exacerbate the vulnerability of agricultural systems, particularly in the semi-arid areas and lands. Increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation are very likely to reduce cereal crop productivity (including maize and wheat), with strong adverse effects on food security.

The IPCC also makes note of emerging evidence that high-value perennial crops could also be adversely affected by a temperature rise. At a global mean temperature increase of 4°C, risks for Africa’s food security are assessed as very high, with limited potential for risk reduction through adaptation (IPCC, 2014).

Climate change is expected to increase the challenges of pests, weeds, and diseases that affect crops and livestock (IPCC, 2021). Thus, climate change threatens to undo or weaken the progress Africans have achieved thus far on managing risks to food production from current climate variability and observed climate change. Figure 3 indicates projected crop yields for major cereals in three major regions of the continent through to mid-century (WMO, 2020). These declines will have significant ramifications for food security and nutrition.

Impacts on humans
In terms of human health, climate change may increase the burden of a range of climate-relevant health outcomes through its impact on climate-sensitive diseases (such as malaria and meningococcal meningitis) and health conditions (such as waterborne illnesses including cholera). Climate change is a multiplier of existing health vulnerabilities including insufficient access to safe water and improved sanitation, food insecurity, and limited access to health care and education – challenges hat most African countries are still contending with. Furthermore, climate change is projected to increase the threat of malnutrition, with the most deleterious impacts likely to fall on children (IPCC, 2021).

Such changes in key economic sectors, coupled with increases in either the occurrence (frequency) or magnitude (intensity) of climate-related hazards, are expected to result in economic loss and damage across the continent. One estimate suggests that for many African countries that are median low-income developing countries with an annual average temperature of 25°C, an increase in temperature will dampen economic activity such that the effect of a 1°C increase in temperature could provoke a reduction of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.2% (WMO, 2020).

According to an analysis by the African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), a rise in temperature of 3°C across Africa could result in an 8.2% decrease in continental GDP, and a 4°C temperature increase could lead to an even more damaging 12.1% GDP reduction (UNECA, 2017).

In summary, key regional climate change risks for Africa include shifts in biome distribution, loss of coral reefs, reduced crop productivity, adverse effects on livestock, vector- and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, and migration; and the levels of these risks are medium-to-high, given the continent’s pronounced adaptation deficit.

Cover photo: The IPCC sixth Assessment Report