2024 on track to be the first year to exceed 1.5ºC above the pre-industrial average
ovember 2024 was the second warmest month of November globally in the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, according to the latest monthly update of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). With this data, it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and that the global average temperature will exceed the 1.5ºC limit above the pre-industrial average set by the Paris Agreement. Around Antarctica, the sea ice saw its lowest extent on record for November.
"With Copernicus data in from the penultimate month of the year, we can now confirm with virtual certainty that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first calendar year above 1.5°C. This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever.” said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Read the press release.
The Paris Agreement aims at “keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” however, this temperature goal refers to a long-term average.
November 2024 was the second warmest globally only behind November 2023, with an average temperature of 14.10ºC and 0.73ºC above the average for November in the period 1991-2020. Both months, November 2024 and 2023 stand out compared to any other November in the dataset.
The month was 1.62ºC above the pre-industrial average for November, being the 16th month of the last 17 months with a global average surface air temperatures above 1.5ºC above the pre-industrial levels.
The global average temperature for the boreal autumn (September to November) was the second highest on record also behind 2023, 0.75ºC above the 1991-2020 average for the month.
Below-average precipitation in western and central Europe
Most western and central Europe saw below-average precipitation in November. In contrast, the Spanish Mediterranean continued to experience heavy precipitation also in November, after the extreme episodes causing severe floods in October. Also parts of Iceland, United Kingdom, Greece and the Balkans and much of Eastern Europe experienced above-average precipitation.
Beyond Europe, several typhoons hit the western Pacific with heavy rains, floods and damage, especially in the Philippines. Many areas of the United States, South America and Australia also saw wetter than average conditions.
Record-low sea ice extent in Antarctica
Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest monthly extent for November, 10% below average, and slightly below the levels of 2016 and 2023, continuing a series of historically large negative anomalies observed in 2023 and 2024.
Arctic sea ice saw its third lowest extent for November, at 9% below average.
Cover photo: Data source: ERA5 • Reference period: 1991–2020 • Credit: C3S/ECMWF
