NRS adopts new Code extending loadshedding beyond stage 8

National Rationalised Specifications (NRS) Association of South Africa adopts Code of Practice for “beyond loadshedding stage 8.”

A potential national grid collapse in South Africa may technically not be an impossibility, but it is “virtually not probable at all.”

This is the assessment of the National Rationalised Specifications (NRS) Association of South Africa in a press release – Preparing and enabling virtually an entire nation to avoid a national blackout and total grid collapse – in which is explained the rationale for adopting a new NRS Code of Practice that extends loadshedding stages beyond stage eight.

Still, the NRS Association said: “We wish to give further assurance to the media, the public, etc that migrating into ‘blackout situation’ and a potential national grid collapse though technically is not impossible, but it is virtually not probable at all.”

But it cautioned that “as a professional, responsible, and forward planning organisation, the NRS Association of SA is of the view that we are currently still ‘not out of the woods’ yet and we may or can still experience advanced levels of loadshedding later this month and in August 2023 and maybe during summer.” 

Generation is not the problem

The NRS said it also noted that the Eskom Generation team “seems to be performing well currently.” 

“The national grid is performing reasonably optimally now, loadshedding levels are low; the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is on the climb though still low at around 60%; demand is down (+-30GW); renewable generation at around +-400MW; OCGTs used is relatively high around +-11 to +-14 and availability around +-29GW.” 

NRS said that many years ago, when the Eskom Generation EAF was high – greater than +- 80% levels – Eskom Generation never did planned maintenance during winter to ensure generation fleet availability “was maximised without compromising the integrity of those generation units at a time when the availability, EAF was high.” 

“Historically also many years ago the maximum demand during a coldish winter can be from +- 34GW to +-38GW or even higher. It may or may not reach such high levels again even this winter. 

“Presumably such high demands at the time historically were reflective of a vibrant economy and where many of the energy intensive users were utilising many more smelters etc. that were either ‘power guzzlers’ or ‘energy guzzlers’ at the time.” 

South Africa adequately prepared should higher stages of loadshedding be implemented, says NRS

The NRS said it is confident that given the thoroughness of the engineering, supporting work and diverse consultation that went into the compilation of a Code of Practice (CoP), that, at an accelerated level, the CoP is reasonably and comprehensively detailed to have prepared all sectors of society.

“… at a level that it would adequately prepare and enable virtually the entire nation especially the various multitude of users comprising commercial, industrial, mining, electricity utilities (includes Eskom and the municipalities), small business, big business, parastatals, national key points, communities as a collective, critical load owners, essential load owners, and even the ordinary public, to be at an advanced state of readiness to avoid going into an unlikely national blackout and total grid collapse situation or event especially in a state of emergency even at advanced levels of loadshedding up to and including the unlikely Stage 16 level.”

The NRS said South Africa’s electricity infrastructure is exposed to a variety of potential threats and vulnerabilities, including: 

• Generation, transmission and distribution plant and control systems failures; extreme weather incidents and the impacts of climate change; 
• Wilful damage (including vandalism and sabotage) to electricity infrastructure; and
• The impact of a sequence of unforeseen events and potential failure of barriers and protection systems and electricity constraints due to infrastructure capacity shortages and disruptions to critical resources (such as coal, gas, and liquid fuel) that may arise from time to time. 

South Africa has not had its national grid collapse ever

“Should the associated risks materialise, the resulting impact on safety, society, the environment, and the economy can be significant. The risk of a national blackout, whilst inherent to the operation of a large power system, has a low likelihood of materialising given operating protocols and protection systems in place,” said the NRS.

It said should a national blackout materialise, the impact on the country “would be severe, impacting critical sectors of society and the economy including personal and occupational safety, water supply and sewage systems, telecommunications and transport infrastructure, and even national security.”

Loadshedding vs Blackouts, according to NRS

The NRS also pointed out that loadshedding differs from a blackout in that loadshedding is a controlled intervention affecting a limited number of customers at a time, whilst a blackout happens without warning in an uncontrolled manner and can affect many (if not all) customers simultaneously for an unpredictable period. 

“Loadshedding is the single biggest constraint on South Africa’s economic growth; however, it is a necessary tool to prevent a collapse of the Interconnected Power System (IPS) during times of supply not being able to meet demand.”

The NRS said a blackout situation and a national grid collapse has not happened in South Africa to date or in the 100 years of Eskom’s existence. 

“The Eskom System Operator does have plans in place which are tested successfully regularly which is in fact a Grid Code requirement. It is very important also that higher stages of loadshedding does not mean we get closer to blackout. It means our electricity utility members especially Eskom and the municipalities are in control of the network and keeping it stable. 

“Lastly ‘blackouts’… are not caused by lack of generation capacity but by unexpected sudden events on the transmission network that cascades and eventually results in generators protecting themselves by separating from the network. Usually, it is because of extreme weather events.” 

Next Steps

The Code of Practice will remain voluntary until NERSA, gives due consideration through its processes to make mandatory adherence or compliance to the Code a licensed condition for the various SA licensed electricity distribution utilities, including Eskom and the municipalities.

Though the Code has a voluntary status at the moment, the NRS points out that “any licensed electricity utility can still choose to adopt and implement the CoP in its operations as part of its Grid Code compliance requirements” as it deals with loadshedding.

*The NRS Association is a high impact voluntary forum or entity of like-minded organisations (includes all eight metros, municipalities, Eskom Holdings, SABS and NERSA) that was formed about 25 years ago to collaborate and develop voluntary industry specifications with the primary intention of standardising equipment specifications across the South African Electricity Supply Industry and the South African Electricity Distribution Industry to inter alia protect the integrity of the South African national grid and associated equipment and systems through its various specifications and codes of practices.

 Cover photo:  syedaliabarz©123rf.com