Nepal is betting its future on hydropower – but the climate crisis is washing those hopes away

Nepal’s clean energy transition, almost entirely dependent on hydropower, is dangerously exposed to the very climate risks it hopes to solve.

Last September, torrential rains tore through Nepal’s largest power plant, causing over $13m in damage. Six months later, the 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project – once a symbol of national energy pride – is still not fully operational, while power shortages have returned across much of the country.

This is not an isolated failure. As floods, landslides and unpredictable rainfall become more frequent in the Himalayas, experts say Nepal’s clean energy transition – almost entirely dependent on hydropower – is dangerously exposed to the very climate risks it hopes to solve.

“Most people think about hydropower as the magic pill,” says Raju Pandit Chhetri, a climate finance expert and member of the Least Developed Countries Financial Group. “But relying on a single source is unsustainable in the face of increasing climate threats.”

Nepal has committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2045. But its energy strategy depends on a fragile foundation: the mountainous, disaster-prone country generates 90 per cent of its power from run-of-river hydroelectric projects, which rely on consistent rainfall and stable weather. These conditions are now disappearing.

In the past three years alone, climate-related disasters, like flash floods and glacial lake bursts, have caused billions in losses to Nepal’s hydropower sector. In some years, droughts have slashed power generation by up to 40 per cent compared to forecasts. And without alternatives like solar or wind, there’s no fallback.

Cover photo:   Elephants help Nepal tourists escape flooding