Climate change taken off spy agencies' global threat list

For the first time in over a decade, climate change or environmental issues were missing from spy agencies' assessment of worldwide threats to the U.S. on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The change — which drew public pushback from one Senate Intelligence Committee member — reflects the new priorities of the Trump administration and the de-emphasis of climate change across agencies.

• It also marks a departure from President Trump's first term, when former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats cited climate in his annual threat assessment reports.

Zoom in: On Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's annual threat assessment and testimony to the Senate panel omitted mention of "climate change" or "environment" as natural security threats.

• Gabbard appeared before the panel along with the heads of the FBI, CIA, National Security Agency and Defense Intelligence Agency to discuss global threats.
• The hearing was dominated by discussion of the Signal group chat that mistakenly included the editor of The Atlantic.
• Prior annual reports dating back to at least 2009, along with a National Intelligence Estimate on climate change in 2021, had highlighted climate change as a threat to the U.S. and American interests abroad.

The intrigue: At the hearing, Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) questioned Gabbard why climate change was left out of this year's report.

• ""Every single one of these reports that we have had has mentioned global climate change as a significant national security threat, except this one," King said.
• "Has global climate change been solved? Why is that not in this report? And who made the decision that it should not be in the report when it's been in every one of the 11 prior reports?"

Gabbard responded that the report was "focused very directly on the threats that we deem most critical to the United States and our national security."

• "For the intelligence community, being aware of the environment that we're operating in is a given," she said.
• "What I focused this annual threat assessment on, and the IC focused this threat assessment on, are the most extreme and critical direct threats to our national security."
• Gabbard said she hadn't instructed the intelligence community to avoid mentioning climate change in the report.

Context: The military — as well as the CIA and other agencies that make up the intelligence community — has long viewed climate change as a "threat multiplier."

• They have cited the potential for climate disasters and trends to destabilize countries and create humanitarian disasters that pull in U.S. military assets.
• Studies have tied a climate change-worsened drought to the deadly Syrian civil war that began in 2011.

• Climate scientists also see global warming-related extreme weather events in the U.S. as direct risks to American citizens as well as to military facilities and personnel.

Between the lines: Climate change is hitting the poorest nations the hardest.

• Past intelligence reports have pointed to the likelihood of climate change-triggered migration that could spark conflicts or threaten the stability of regions where the U.S. has interests, such as the Middle East.
• Notably, the Arctic section of the threat assessment doesn't mention climate change, even though melting sea ice and sharply warming temperatures are why the region is becoming more accessible and is seeing increased military and shipping activity.

Under Trump, federal agencies have been scrubbing websites of climate change-related datasets and information, with cuts to climate-related research occurring as well.

• Trump himself has repeatedly denied the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change.

What they're saying: "Unfortunately, we cannot wish away the security threats associated with climate change," said Erin Sikorsky, director of the Center for Climate and Security.

• "As a former intelligence officer, I fear that by eliminating climate threats from the [threat assessment], the DNI will create a chilling effect across the intelligence community," Sikorsky told Axios via email.
• "IC officers will know that warnings about climate risks are unwelcome, which means the US will almost certainly miss things or get things wrong."

Cover photo:  Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios