Canada Trails Global Partners in Reducing Emissions

As countries gather in Belém for the United Nations COP30 climate conference, 440 Megatonnes put Canada’s emissions reduction progress in a global context, comparing what Canada has achieved to the progress being made by its diplomatic and trading partners.

It’s worth remembering that Canada is a globally-significant emitter of greenhouse gases, the 10th-largest in absolute terms in 2024 and among the highest in per-capita terms.

The same goes for some of Canada’s fellow G7 members and chief trading partners, which are among the world’s largest economies. Yet many—if not all—have made more progress than Canada in reducing their emissions.

Figure 1 shows how emissions in G7 countries and the top 10 destinations for Canada’s exports have changed since 2005.

Among G7 countries, the picture is fairly consistent: all countries have made some progress, and all have made more than Canada. While Canada reduced its emissions by nearly 9% since 2005, the average reduction is more than 30%, with the United States reducing emissions the second-least, by 17%, and the United Kingdom making the most progress with a 45% cut.

As in Canada, the greatest progress in G7 countries has come in the electricity sector. With the exception of France, most began the millennium with a higher dependence on coal than Canada, and all have been shifting to varying mixes of renewables, nuclear, and gas power. In some cases less encouraging causes have contributed to the reductions, like declining industrial production in Japan.

The picture is more mixed when looking at Canada’s main trading partners. Unlike the G7, whose members are all wealthy developed countries, the top 10 destinations of Canada’s exports include China, India, and Mexico, middle-income and developing countries where economic growth, consumption, and industrial production—powerful drivers of emissions—have typically risen more rapidly.

Accordingly, while Canada’s peers have largely reduced their emissions since 2005, emissions in developing country partners have grown, in India’s case by more than double. The outlier is South Korea, which is wealthier than France or Italy yet has rising emissions, due in part to persistently high fossil fuel use for electricity.

But even where progress has been limited to date, more can be expected. Every country shown above—apart from the U.S.—has a net zero target and has carbon pricing systems, except India, which will implement a system next year. Even China, by far the world’s largest emitter, may see its emissions peak before the end of the decade, prompted by massive expansion of renewable energy and electrified technologies.

Cover photo: (Herman Van Rompuy/flickr)