Tornado danger in South Africa

Insurers have recently warned that extreme weather occurrences, including freakishly strong winds and wind funnels such as tornadoes, are becoming more common in South Africa due to climate change.

Local tornado occurrences are not completely unprecedented, with recorded sightings dating back as far as 1905 and multiple formations detected annually.

Meteorologists have generally not focused on these dangerous wind funnels due to their rarity and relatively limited impact compared to other storms.

However, it may surprise some that tornadoes have been responsible for dozens of deaths and injuries in South Africa over the past few decades, and substantial damage to thousands of homes and other buildings.

An article on Wikipedia lists at least 31 significant tornadoes between 1948 and 2025, 18 of which resulted in fatalities.

The most devastating in terms of loss of life occurred in the small Eastern Cape town of Mount Ayliff, later renamed eMaxesibeni, on 19 January 1999.

That tornado was classified as F4 on the Fujita scale, with wind speeds between 333km/h and 420km/h, sufficient to throw cars and large objects a considerable distance.

An unclassified category tornado that caused 18 fatalities and 150 injuries in Mthatha just over a month earlier likely made more headlines as former President Nelson Mandela was nearly one of its victims.

Mandela was at a pharmacy when the tornado hit but was shielded by his bodyguards while lying on the floor.

Over the past year, there have been at least two confirmed tornadoes, both of which occurred in mid-2024.

The strongest of these ripped through parts of Tongaat, KwaZulu-Natal, on 3 June 2024.

On the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale, which has since replaced the regular Fujita scale, the tornado was classified as EF3 with speeds in the range of 218km/h to 266km/h.

It claimed the lives of 12 people while causing R1.3 billion in infrastructure damage.

Just a day after that, another tornado was spotted moving between Newcastle and Utrecht, although its path resulted in minimal damage.

On 6 January 2025, a “funnel of wind” similar to a tornado ripped through Welkom and damaged hundreds of homes while leaving dozens injured.

The Free State town previously lost 4,000 homes to an F4 category tornado on 20 March 1990, which was regarded to the country’s most devasting tornado in monetary terms.

On 18 February 2025, a wind funnel known as a landspout hit Montana in northern Pretoria. While similar in appearance to a tornado, landspouts are not formed by thunderstorm supercells.

However, they can still cause a lot of damage, and this one uprooted trees, tore off roofs and geysers, and damaged cars.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) considered it miraculous that no one died or was injured in the incident.

In October 2024, Emerald Risk Transfer portfolio manager Deen Pillay wrote the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events including tornadoes in South Africa was challenging the way that underwriters viewed their risk exposure to such events.

“South Africa has experienced major storms, strong winds and flooding events recently, especially in the last two years, with significantly increased frequency,” Pillay said.

“The risks associated with providing storm cover under non-life insurance policies for both private residences and businesses has become an increased focus for insurers.”

“As the risk landscape evolves, so too will underwriters considerations in respect of their risk exposures to such extreme events.”

Independent weather analyst Dr. Nomhle Ngwenya, the youngest ever science PhD graduate from Wits, recently told The Sowetan that more frequent tornadoes were likely in South Africa due to climate change.

“Weather patterns are becoming unstable, leading to more frequent conditions conducive to tornado formation,” Ngwenya said.

While there are ways to predict tornadoes in certain instances, meteorologists don’t generally track their development in South Africa due to their rarity.

Globally, scientists still don’t fully understand how tornadoes form.

The SAWS says that tornadoes can occur anywhere in South Africa where thunderstorms are possible.

Most have been observed in Gauteng, the Free State, and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the northern region of the former Transkei in the Eastern Cape.

“There seems to be a preference to mountainous areas,” SAWS said.

Most tornadoes occur in mid-summer from November to January, although spring has also seen a large number making their appearance.

The service also said that roughly 65% of tornadoes in the country have been classified as F0 or F1, causing only light damage. Only 10% are classified at F3 or higher.

The table below provides a breakdown of the different categories of tornadoes based on their wind speeds

Cover photo: By MyBroadBand