A new study has for the first time shown that human induced greenhouse gas emissions are directly responsible for the long term trends of drying in the Mediterranean and increasing rainfall over the rest of Europe during winter.
The research by Met Office scientists, published in the Journal of Climate, also found that increasing greenhouse gas emissions are associated with increases in extreme rainfall events.
As our atmosphere warms due to human induced climate change, it can hold more moisture. For every 1°C of warming the atmosphere can hold between 6-7% more moisture. This has a significant impact on rainfall patterns across the globe.
Observations show that there has been a pattern of increasing seasonal rainfall north of the Mediterranean basin and decreases in southernmost Europe. This pattern is stronger and more widespread in winter, and weaker in summer when Eastern and Western Europe also experience dry conditions. These patterns are best understood visually, as shown in the maps below, where the red colours show drying and blue colours show increased rainfall between 1901 and 2018.