Prognosis & Predictions: Sarah Malm – CEO, GOGLA
Looking at the world that was and what could be in our annual power and energy feature
Prognosis for 2025
Although the year began with the unravelling of major Africa-focused energy initiatives, including the US-supported Power Africa programme, 2025 clearly demonstrated the resilience of many public sector institutions and the critical role of the private sector in meeting rising demand for reliable energy.
Off-grid solar companies continued to deliver adaptable and people-centred solutions where traditional infrastructure cannot reach. From small household systems to larger equipment that can electrify enterprises and support resilient food systems, off-grid solar consistently expanded economic opportunity, strengthened resilience, and improved quality of life.
This momentum is reflected in the growing alignment around initiatives like Mission 300. Roughly half of Mission 300’s connection goals will be achieved through off-grid solar and distributed renewables.
Country compacts share a conviction that these are critical and proven technologies and drivers of inclusive growth. To meet energy demand on an African scale, we must accelerate what works.
Predictions for 2026
Looking ahead, I see several emerging dynamics in 2026 that are likely to shape the future of energy access:
- First, innovative financing, technology, and business models will be essential to unlock the next wave of adoption. Advances in PAYGo, Energy-as-a-Service, battery life, device leasing, and blended finance are improving both affordability and durability.
- Second, smarter subsidy schemes are urgently needed. The year ahead offers an opportunity to rethink subsidies and redesign results-based financing (RBF) programmes so they become more flexible, more outcome-driven, and better aligned with diverse technologies and business models. When designed well, RBF can unlock scale without compromising sustainability.
- Third, productive-use applications will grow rapidly. These devices are putting solar to work for irrigation, cold storage, agro-processing, and to power a range of SMEs that anchor rural and peri-urban economies. They are poised to attract more targeted financing and policy support.
- Fourth, digitisation, data, and AI will reshape how energy access markets operate, how credit risk is managed, and how companies interact with consumers.
If 2025 taught us anything, it is that Africa’s energy future depends on a “Yes, and” approach that values solutions of every size and prioritises impact, speed, and equity.
Cover photo: By ESI
