Plastic pollution could be slashed by 80% by 2040, UN says

Global plastic pollution could be slashed by 80% by 2040, according to a report from the UN Environment Programme (Unep). The changes needed are major, but are also practical and affordable, the agency said.

The first step is to eliminate unnecessary plastics, such as excessive packaging, the report said. Then next steps are to increase the reuse of plastics, such as refillable bottles, boosting recycling and replace plastics with greener alternatives.

Such a shift, driven by government policies and changes in the plastic industry, would mean plastic pollution would drop to about 40m tons in 2040, rather than 227m tons if no action is taken.

The changes would bring benefits worth trillions of dollars between now and 2040, the report said, by reducing the damage caused by plastics to health, the climate and the environment.

Plastic now contaminates the entire planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans. People consume microplastics via food and water, as well as breathing them in, and the particles have been found in people’s blood and breast milk.

In March 2022, 193 countries agreed to end plastic pollution, with negotiations on a legally binding agreement by 2024 now under way, hosted by Unep. The second round of negotiations starts on 29 May. The world currently produces 430m tons of plastics a year, two-thirds of which are short-lived products that soon become waste. Production is set to triple by 2060 on current trends.

“The way we produce, use and dispose of plastics is polluting ecosystems, creating risks for human health and destabilising the climate,” said Inger Andersen, Unep’s executive director. “This report lays out a roadmap to dramatically reduce these risks through adopting a circular approach that keeps plastics out of ecosystems, out of our bodies and in the economy.

“Crucially, the report demonstrates that the transformation would provide economic and social wins. Governments and the private sector would save money and hundreds of thousands of new jobs would be created,” she said.

The report estimated that the increased reuse of plastics could reduce 30% of plastic pollution by 2040, with measures including deposit-return schemes for containers. Such a scheme is due to start in England in 2025, seven years after it was first announced.

More recycling would cut pollution in 2040 by a further 20%, the report said. Taxing virgin plastic and removing fossil fuel subsidies are policies that would encourage this, by making recycling more economically attractive compared with producing new plastic. Enforcing packaging guidelines to increase the recyclability of products would also be important.

The careful replacement of plastic products, such as takeaway food containers, with alternative materials such as paper or compostable materials could cut another 17% from pollution in 2040, the report said.

Plastic items from takeaway food and drink dominate the litter in the world’s oceans, according to a 2021 study. There would still be a lot of plastic waste to be disposed of safely in 2040, and making manufacturers responsible for this would help, the Unep report said.

The report indicates that the combination of cost savings from producing less plastic and increased revenues from selling recycled plastic would reduce industry costs significantly. The investment needed for the overall shift would be substantial, at $65bn (£51bn) a year, the report said, but that is only about half of what is already invested by the plastic industry.

The UN report estimated that over the next 20 years, cutting plastic pollution by 80% would prevent damage valued at more than $3tn, including impacts on health, climate, air pollution, the ocean environment and legal costs for cases brought against plastic companies.

In particular, the 80% cut would prevent 500m tons of CO₂ emissions per year, the report estimated, about the same as the emissions of Canada. This shift could also lead to a net increase of 700,000 jobs by 2040, mostly in low-income countries, the report said.

Andersen said the report was intended to inform the countries negotiating for a global plastic treaty of the options available. She said she was optimistic that a global deal could be reached in 2024: “There is a lot of determination from so many sides, north, west, east and south. [Ending plastic pollution] is a thing that people want as it is a problem wherever you are.

“There will still be a need for plastic,” she said. “But we need to rethink where we’re using it and how we’re using it, so that much more of it [is reused and recycled] and a lot less is merely single-use.”

cover photo:Sheep grazing among plastic in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Plastic contaminates the entire planet, from the summit of Mount Everest to the deepest oceans. Photograph: Syed Mahabubul Kader/ZUMA Press Wire/Rex/Shutterstock