Fossil fuel transition talks rescued from brink of collapse at COP29

Countries now have a second chance in Baku to build consensus on how to cut emissions and transition away from fossil fuels

COP29 talks on measures to cut emissions and progress a landmark agreement on “transitioning away from fossil fuels” had to be rescued from the brink of collapse by the COP presidency after opposition from oil-rich Saudi Arabia and some other developing countries.

Countries failed to reach an agreement on mitigation over the weekend and a decision was taken to postpone talks until next year. But COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev announced efforts to restore talks on Monday at a plenary, backed by many countries supporting a strong outcome in Baku this week.

“COP29 cannot and will not be silent on mitigation. We will address the matter [in] every direction,” Babayev told the COP plenary.

Governments have struggled to reaffirm a pledge first agreed at COP28 last year to “transition away from fossil fuels” in other agreements this year. It was left out of a climate and biodiversity decision at last month’s COP16 in Cali and reports suggested it also struggled to make it into the G20 ministerial statement.

Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, former COP president and WWF climate and energy lead, said finance for the energy transition will play a key role in unlocking progress on mitigation, as developing countries called for funding for the energy transition.

“After a faltering first week, Parties now have a second chance to work together and build consensus around the climate solutions we need to reduce emissions quickly. It is essential that this COP sends a strong signal that countries need to raise their game on emission reductions,” Pulgar-Vidal said in a statement.

Brink of collapse

Late on Saturday, when many COP29 delegates were letting their hair down after a long first week, negotiators failed to agree on a path forward for discussions on cutting emissions.

A coalition of developed countries, small island states, the least developed countries (LDCs) and some Latin American nations want to discuss how to take forward last year’s global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels through the so-called Mitigation Work Programme, a negotiating track set up at COP26 in 2021 with the goal of enhancing efforts to cut emissions. 

They had pushed to set up an emissions-cutting “ facilitation process and platform” and “urge” governments to do things like stop building new coal-fired power plants and phase out (not just, as previously agreed, phase down) coal, according to observers.

The coalition wanted to set numerical targets for reducing methane emissions, curbing deforestation, increasing energy storage and improving grids to enable the roll-out of renewable energy.

But, speaking in Saturday night’s plenary, Saudi Arabia said this was an attempt at “eroding the flexibility developing countries depend on” and that there should be no new targets or goals. 

Bolivia, speaking on behalf of the LMDC group which includes China, also rejected “targets and outlandish proposals”. Iran and India supported this, with India saying that the talks’ conclusions were supposed to be “non prescriptive”. The African group also rejected “attempts to impose new requirements”.

With governments divided over the purpose of the talks, their co-chairs suggested on Saturday not continuing the mitigation negotiations into the second week and delaying them for six months until the mid-year climate talks in the German city of Bonn. That would have meant scrapping all the work done in the first week. A consensus could not be reached to carry on with the talks in Baku.

Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, said Saudi Arabia wants to be as “unconstructive as they can be when it comes to fossil fuels” and is “happy to be destructive”. He added that civil society “disagrees” with this stance because there is a need to talk about implementing last year’s decisions on energy transition as well as financing arrangements for that to happen including through the new climate finance goal.

Presidency steps in

On Monday, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev said he would make efforts to prevent the talks from collapsing, appointing ministers from Norway and South Africa to consult countries on the way forward.

At a plenary session, several countries expressed disappointment with the state of the mitigation talks, saying a strong outcome on emission-cutting measures was a priority for them. They also refused to postpone discussions until next year.

Australia, on behalf of the Umbrella Group of developed countries, said “some parties consistently blocked” progress and welcomed the presidency’s efforts to keep the talks going. 

The AOSIS group of small islands said they would not leave Baku without “a strong mitigation outcome”. “The fact that those discussions are stalled is extremely concerning for our group,” a negotiator from Samoa told the COP plenary.

The COP president said his team will run consultations with countries, which will be facilitated by Norway and South Africa and will conclude by Wednesday. He also ruled out the possibility of a cover text, which is a high-profile general statement signed off by all governments but not linked to any particular strand of the negotiations.

New climate plans

Speaking at the Monday plenary, Switzerland noted that decisions made in Baku on mitigation will serve to inform the next round of national climate plans, which are due to be submitted by early next year. “It’s not acceptable that in the very body meant to reduce emissions we do not have a clear message going forward,” the Swiss negotiator said.

The European Union waded into the debate on Monday afternoon, with its climate commissioner Hoekstra saying it was “imperative” to send a strong signal from Baku to inform the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). “We must follow on our historic decision in Dubai to truly transition away from fossil fuels,” he added.

He praised the announcements of 2035 emissions reduction goals from the UAE, Brazil and the UK before and during COP29 as “positive and promising”. 

He also added that the EU would put together an ambitious NDC in line with the 1.5C warming limit, and is on the right track, cutting greenhouse gas emissions by more than 8% in 2023, compared to the previous year. “We need – and we will continue to keep the pace,” he said, without clarifying when the EU’s updated NDC would land.

Cover photo: COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev at a plenary as talks enter the second week in Baku, Azerbaijan. (Photo: UNFCCC)