COP29: Another Fossil Fuel victory or are we going to put up a fight?

01 11 2024 | 08:13Dr Ioannis Tsipouridis

As Spain, one of the latest countries hit hard by the climate crisis, struggles to recover, the ongoing rhetoric of keeping the 1.5°C target alive sounds hollow.

The official reports of the last few days confirm that we are heading in the wrong direction[i] [ii] [iii]. In fact, scientists expect the temperature to rise well above 2.0^oC, even above 2.5^oC. Which is only to be expected since the fossil fuel industry, in harmony with other industries, the stock exchange and of course decision makers, are moving ahead undeterred, planning even more fossil fuel expansion.

Given that 1.5^oC temperature rise is already causing climate chaos, with impacts visible in our daily news feed, imagine the devastation a 2.0°C or 2.5°C rise will wreak, especially on vulnerable communities.

This projection is not up for debate; it’s science. Actually, scientists are now questioning whether the anticipated temperature overshoot may have been underestimated. What does “overshoot” mean? It’s the extent and duration of temperature rise beyond the 1.5°C threshold before eventually returning below it again. Connected to that is also the question of how much worse climate change will actually get in the next years, if e.g. tipping points are crossed.

In plain English, going back to the climate paradise we had, but didn’t appreciate, will not happen anytime soon, even if all the industries on the planet realised the evil of their energy ways, repented and started acting truly sustainably tomorrow.

The climate crisis will be with us for a long time.

As for action, we are in fact, left with only one option: managing and cutting our losses.

There is no win scenario possible. We’re facing environmental setbacks that will define the next century. We have been defeated very badly and we will be environmentally relegated. There is no VAR to come to our rescue.

So, what can we do? The solutions have always been well known, with the most obvious ones being:

Eliminate Fossil Fuel subsidies immediately
Phase out Fossil Fuels immediately

By the way, and make no mistake on this, everyone knows that these are the only solutions, even those who deny them.

I was going to write even Trump, but that’s taking it too far….

Therefore any and all discussions about climate solutions instead of concrete actions are intended to stall and delay the required climate action.

The market is in fact embracing solutions that are profitable, in effect using the same “growth” model tools and criteria that brought us to this mess in the first place i.e. exploiting further both people and the planet and prioritizing profit over genuine sustainability.

Hence, it’s no surprise that the global response is very slow, too slow to have any effect on the galloping climate crisis.

In the meantime, COP’s, have become the epitome of kicking the can down the road.

How many COP’s to arrest climate chaos?

(Brilliant placard that was first seen during COP26)

Are we serious with COP’s? When do we draw the line? At the 40th, 50th or 100^th COP, which is a nice and round number?

And what is actually happening at COP’s?

The emblematic COP21, which I was lucky to attend, did not even mention fossil fuels in the final documents.

It took 26 COP’s just to use the term fossil fuels in the official text and then the reference was only to coal.

It took 27 COP’s to admit that Loss and Damage was worth discussing about, but, of course, no mention of liability—only vague commitments to “support” those affected.

COPs have become a playground for fossil fuel lobbyists. They even have the nerve to sign new fossil fuel exploration deals during COP’s.

So why do we go there? Our presence simply legitimises such practices.

Can we at least make this one count? Like our life depended on it?

Can COP29 be the last COP? Wouldn’t that be something?

Otherwise maybe we should boycott, walk out or disrupt COP29. How much worse will it be, if we do so?

All decisions taken in the last few years on all three planetary fronts, biodiversity, pollution and climate change, would have had any meaning and any effect at all, if they had been taken a few decades ago. Now they don’t even begin to scratch the surface of the issues. Time is not on humanity’s side. Delaying further is disastrous and yet this is the path chosen by the powers that be.

Every day we delay action the “Loss and Damage bill” increases exponentially. And let’s not forget that money might replace property, but it won’t bring back lives or comfort those facing climate-driven anxiety and loss.

And with climate displacement on the rise, how many more climate refugees will it take before we acknowledge this mounting fourth planetary crisis? One displaced person is already one too many.

One of the ironies of the climate crisis era is that we live in a period where unprecedented volumes of information are available to us, only to be surpassed by even greater volumes of misinformation. The truth, it seems, has become indiscernible. This environment of confusion and disorientation accelerates the planetary crisis we are experiencing.

When the truth about the climate crisis is obscured, the causes—and therefore the solutions—are also cast into doubt. This ambiguity is a “gift” to industries and corporations responsible for much of humanity's suffering, who leverage their influence to obscure reality and stall climate action.

But perhaps the greatest tragedy of the climate crisis is the generational impact. Our children, for whom we profess love and a duty to protect, will inherit a reality we barely understand ourselves.

The hardest truth to convey to them is that the climate crisis isn’t going away, and they’ll have to live in its shadow.

They will live in a world shaped by the consequences of our inaction. As global temperatures rise the likelihood of catastrophic weather events—floods, droughts, wildfires—will increase. Their futures will be defined by these challenges.

It’s time to stop telling fairy tales about net-zero by 2050 and 1.5^oC.

The climate has changed and it will not change back any time soon.

Our children are headed for a dystopian future.

Our children have the right to know.

Dr. Ioannis Tsipouridis

Renewable Energy Consultant Engineer and Climate Action Advocate