Cabinet papers reveal Alexander Downer warned of dire climate change outcomes in 2005

Officials warned of major economic, environmental and social disruption to Australia due to its dependence on coal

The Howard government was warned in 2005 that climate change was occurring more quickly than previously predicted and “many human and natural systems and economic activities in Australia” were vulnerable, newly released documents show.

Cabinet papers made public by the National Archives on Thursday show officials warned the Coalition government of critical gaps in knowledge about the timing, location and magnitude of climate-related damage, even as international cooperation geared up to try to limit the worst effects on the planet.

Officials warned Australia’s dependence on coal would make balancing the negative impacts of climate change and the need for economic growth more difficult, forecasting major economic, environmental and social disruption.

A cabinet submission in August 2005 from the then foreign affairs minister, Alexander Downer, and the then environment minister, Ian Campbell, described the pace of global temperature movements as “unprecedented in human history” and said global concentrations of carbon dioxide were 30% higher than at any time in the previous 400,000 years.

Cabinet was told the risk extended to Australia’s water resources, agricultural systems, electricity supply, transport infrastructure, human health, coastal and urban communities, and tourism.

“The magnitude of climate change in Australia, combined with marginal rainfall in many of our key agricultural areas and a heavy reliance on irrigation, is likely to make Australia more vulnerable to climate change than most developed countries, including the United States (US) and many European countries,” Downer and Campbell’s submission says.

Along with a lengthy background document on climate science from officials at the Bureau of Meteorology, the submission said water supply could come under significant pressure, in part due to reduced rainfall and more severe droughts across south-western and south-eastern Australia.

“These factors are also projected to lead to more frequent and intense bush fires and to negative impacts on Australia’s agricultural production, particularly where there are existing problems such as soil salinity and soil erosion.”

In 2002, the government had decided not to ratify the Kyoto protocol on carbon emissions, which came into force in February 2005.

That decision, the papers reveal, led to concern among investors in Australian businesses about long-term regulatory uncertainty. Business told the government the lack of a lasting policy framework was “inhibiting investment” in energy generation and energy-intensive industries.

In 2003 – two years before the period covered by the newly released papers – Howard had vetoed a submission from ministers proposing an emissions trading scheme, citing concerns from industry leaders.

A year later, the cabinet rejected recommendations to strengthen the country’s renewable energy target, designed to reduce emissions by encouraging more renewable electricity generation.

By 2007, as the opposition leader, Kevin Rudd, increased pressure on the Coalition over climate, Howard changed his position to support a trading scheme, after a report by his departmental secretary, Peter Shergold.

Philip Ruddock, who was Howard’s attorney general in 2005, said at a briefing on the release of the papers last month the government was very aware of the emerging scientific consensus on climate change.

“I’ve always been of the view that if the world is going to address [climate change], we need to be ensuring that Australia plays its part,” he said.

Ruddock said the potential of some technologies, including carbon capture and storage, had not yet reached the potential that had been expected in 2005. He called for the Howard-era moratorium banning domestic nuclear power to be removed.

The papers reveal the Treasury supported a recommendation for development of an international climate strategy that was environmentally effective, economically efficient and “does not impose an unfair burden on Australia”.

Downer’s position is less clear today. In November, he used a column in the Adelaide Advertiser to question the consensus on climate science, writing the “only thing truly settled is that the planet has warmed since the Industrial Revolution”.

Downer argued the cost of addressing climate should be carefully weighed.

“We should make a fair and proportionate contribution,” he wrote. “But there is no virtue in imposing vast costs on our economy for the sake of gestures that have no practical impact.”

Cover photo:  The then foreign affairs minister, Alexander Downer, in Parliament House in 2005. A submission by Downer and Ian Campbell, revealed in the cabinet papers, said Australia was ‘more vulnerable to climate change than most developed countries’. Photograph: AAP